Zambia
vs
Togo
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Zambia are the model's most likely winner at 42.9%, although the forecast remains competitive and slightly favors at least one clean sheet.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2% | 11.0% | 5.0% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 14.7% | 13.2% | 6.0% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 8.8% | 7.9% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 3 | 3.5% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
Zambia win
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 42.9%
- Model fair odds
- 2.33
- Available odds
- 2.15
- Expected value
- -7.7%
Odds are valid as of September 28, 2026, 13:02 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Form (Last 5)
- Home: L
- Away: W
Match Preview
Zambia return to qualification duty with home advantage and the stronger case on paper, but this is not the sort of group game to treat lightly. In African Cup of Nations qualifying, margins are often decided by rhythm, discipline, and who handles the occasion better, and Zambia should feel the pressure to make their home start count.
The most recent form lines are modest on both sides: Zambia come in off a loss, while Togo arrive with a win. That alone does not settle the contest, but it does hint that Togo may be carrying slightly more confidence into the trip. Zambia’s profile suggests they can still control large parts of the match, yet their recent defensive numbers leave room for concern, especially if the game becomes stretched.
Togo’s clean sheet in their latest outing is encouraging and fits a side that can stay compact and make things awkward. They do not need to dominate possession to be dangerous, and if they keep the score level into the second half, the draw becomes a very live route. That is the key tension here: Zambia may have the superior home expectation, but Togo look capable of keeping this close enough to resist an easy pattern.
The broader match forecast points toward a relatively low-scoring contest, with 1-0 and 1-1 among the more plausible scorelines. That fits the shape of the matchup: Zambia have enough attacking quality to edge it, yet Togo’s discipline and recent result suggest they can avoid being overwhelmed. With both teams still early in the group stage, a measured approach is likely before either side takes unnecessary risks.
Zambia are the likelier winners on balance, but the fixture has enough draw potential and enough resistance from Togo to keep the result from feeling straightforward.
ScoreCast Pick
Zambia win • Odds 2.15 • Confidence 6/10
Odds are valid as of September 28, 2026, 13:02 CET.