Willem II
vs
Fortuna Sittard
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Willem II are the model's most likely winner at 38.3%, although the forecast remains competitive and slightly favors both teams to score.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 6.5% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 5.2% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 2.8% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
Fortuna Sittard win
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 38.3%
- Model fair odds
- 2.61
- Available odds
- 2.55
- Expected value
- -2.4%
Odds are valid as of September 17, 2026, 21:27 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- Willem II: A. Culum (Foot Injury), T. Didillon Hodl (Hamstring Injury), J. Hoogma (Inactive), A. Lachkar (Groin Injury), V. van Crooij (Inactive), A. Culum (Foot Injury)
- Fortuna Sittard: R. Bayram (Knee Injury), I. Marquez (Injury), Y. Oukili (Injury), K. Peterson (Inactive), S. Simons (Hamstring Injury), S. Wylin (Inactive)
Form (Last 5)
- Home: L D L D L
- Away: W L W W L
H2H (Last 5)
- 2025-04-27 · Fortuna Sittard · 1-0 · Willem II
- 2024-10-20 · Willem II · 0-0 · Fortuna Sittard
- 2022-03-13 · Fortuna Sittard · 1-0 · Willem II
- 2021-10-22 · Willem II · 1-1 · Fortuna Sittard
- 2021-05-16 · Willem II · 2-1 · Fortuna Sittard
Match Preview
Willem II face Fortuna Sittard in Eredivisie during Regular Season - 7, with the prediction assessed over the standard 90-minute match period. The fixture can move through several game states, so the preview should not be reduced to one expected-score number or one short passage of momentum. The confirmed selection comes from the available matchup evidence, the permitted market and the recorded price at generation time.
The opening phase will be important because early control can influence pressing intensity, passing risk and the spaces available in transition. Set pieces, second balls and the response to the first major chance can also change the direction of the contest. A spell of possession does not guarantee a result, while a team defending for longer periods can still remain dangerous when the game becomes stretched.
The supplied recent-form context is Willem II: 2 draws, 4 losses; Fortuna Sittard: 3 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses. Those records provide useful background, but they do not remove the uncertainty attached to one match.
For a 1X2 selection, the full-time result after 90 minutes is the only settlement condition. Territorial control or a stronger expected-goals figure is not enough unless it is converted into the required result.
The independent model rates Willem II as the likeliest 1X2 outcome at 38.3%, while its probabilities remain separate from the ScoreCast Pick. This forecast is supporting context rather than a replacement recommendation, and it can legitimately point toward a different base outcome from the selected betting market.
There is still normal football uncertainty around the selection. Finishing, discipline, substitutions and late changes in game state can all affect whether the required market condition is reached. The analysis therefore keeps one clear betting conclusion and does not introduce a competing outcome, an extra goals condition or an unsupported pricing claim. The ScoreCast Pick is Fortuna Sittard win.
ScoreCast Pick
Fortuna Sittard win • Odds 2.55 • Confidence 6/10
Odds are valid as of September 17, 2026, 21:27 CET.