West Ham
vs
Fulham
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Fulham are the model's most likely winner at 43.4%, although the forecast remains competitive and slightly favors both teams to score.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 7.1% | 11.3% | 9.0% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 4.8% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 2.1% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
West Ham win
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 32.3%
- Model fair odds
- 3.09
- Available odds
- 3.10
- Expected value
- +0.2%
Odds are valid as of September 14, 2026, 10:18 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Form (Last 5)
- Home: W W
- Away: W
H2H (Last 5)
- 2026-03-04 · Fulham · 0-1 · West Ham
- 2025-12-27 · West Ham · 0-1 · Fulham
- 2025-01-14 · West Ham · 3-2 · Fulham
- 2024-09-14 · Fulham · 1-1 · West Ham
- 2024-04-14 · West Ham · 0-2 · Fulham
Match Preview
West Ham’s meeting with Fulham has the feel of a tight London knockout tie rather than a routine cup assignment. The recent head-to-head record offers mixed signals, but West Ham have taken two of the last three meetings and also edged Fulham away from home in March. That gives the hosts some useful familiarity in a fixture that rarely lacks edge.
Form adds a little more weight to West Ham’s case. They arrive with 2 wins from their recent run, while Fulham have 1 win. Neither side is in a long rhythm of results, so the margin between them is not huge, but West Ham have shown enough to suggest they can lean on home advantage and make the tie uncomfortable for the visitors. In knockout football, that first burst of confidence often matters more than broader reputation.
Fulham are still very much in the conversation because they have already shown they can hurt West Ham in this matchup. Their 1-0 win at the London Stadium last season is a reminder that this is not a one-way contest, and the forecast also points to a competitive evening rather than a lopsided script. The most likely scoreline sits in the narrow range, which fits the expectation of moments deciding the outcome.
There are no injury concerns to shape the narrative, so the decision rests mainly on matchup context, recent results, and home setting. West Ham have the better recent direct edge, and in a cup tie that can be enough to tip a close game. The locked ScoreCast Pick is West Ham win.
ScoreCast Pick
West Ham win • Odds 3.10 • Confidence 6/10
Odds are valid as of September 14, 2026, 10:18 CET.