West Brom
vs
QPR
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
West Brom are the model's most likely winner at 46.7%, with a clearer model edge and slightly favors both teams to score.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 9.7% | 11.7% | 7.0% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 7.8% | 9.3% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 4.2% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
West Brom win
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 46.7%
- Model fair odds
- 2.14
- Available odds
- 2.10
- Expected value
- -2.0%
Odds are valid as of September 10, 2026, 15:02 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- West Brom: M. Johnston (Broken Leg), B. Pereira (Red Card), M. Johnston (Broken Leg), B. Pereira (Red Card)
- QPR: I. Chair (Injury), K. Dembele (Knee Injury), B. Kemper (Ankle Injury), R. Kone (Injury), I. Chair (Injury), K. Dembele (Knee Injury), B. Kemper (Ankle Injury), R. Kone (Injury)
Form (Last 5)
- Home: W L D W W
- Away: D W W L D
H2H (Last 5)
- 2025-12-29 · West Brom · 2-1 · QPR
- 2025-12-06 · QPR · 3-1 · West Brom
- 2025-03-08 · West Brom · 1-0 · QPR
- 2024-08-10 · QPR · 1-3 · West Brom
- 2024-03-06 · QPR · 2-2 · West Brom
Match Preview
West Brom head into this clash with the look of a side that has settled quickly into the season. They sit top of the table on 13 points from six matches and have lost only once, which is a strong early return in a competitive Championship race. QPR are also in good shape on 11 points, but their away profile is less convincing, and that may matter here.
The recent form lines are respectable on both sides, yet West Brom still have the more reliable base. Their 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss compare well with QPR’s 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, and the hosts also look stronger in attack. West Brom’s league scoring rate and overall shot of control suggest they are more likely to dictate the rhythm, particularly at The Hawthorns.
There are injury concerns for both teams, but West Brom’s are easier to absorb. M. Johnston is out with a broken leg and B. Pereira is suspended, which removes quality from the home attack. QPR, however, are also missing I. Chair and K. Dembele, while B. Kemper and R. Kone are doubtful. That is a significant creative hit for the visitors, especially against a side that has already shown it can manage games well at home.
The head-to-head record also points towards West Brom. They beat QPR 2-1 in the reverse meeting and have taken three of the last five encounters, including a 1-0 home success. QPR are capable of making this awkward, but the pattern of recent meetings gives West Brom the psychological edge as well as the stronger league standing.
The model’s projected scoreline is fairly modest, which fits a contest that could stay tight longer than the market might suggest. West Brom do not need to dominate every phase to get the job done; they simply look more complete and more dependable in the key moments.
ScoreCast Pick
West Brom win • Odds 2.10 • Confidence 7/10
Odds are valid as of September 10, 2026, 15:02 CET.