Werder Bremen
vs
FC Augsburg
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Werder Bremen are the model's most likely winner at 41.7%, although the forecast remains competitive and slightly favors both teams to score.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 6.1% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| 2 | 5.4% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 3.1% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 5 | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
FC Augsburg win
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 35.5%
- Model fair odds
- 2.82
- Available odds
- 2.80
- Expected value
- -0.7%
Odds are valid as of September 17, 2026, 21:27 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- Werder Bremen: F. Agu (Calf Injury), M. N'Diaye (Groin Injury), J. Njinmah (Thigh Injury), J. Stage (Muscle Injury), K. Topp (Knee Injury), S. Lynen (Hip Injury)
- FC Augsburg: T. Breithaupt (Injury), A. Kade (Injury), S. Mounie (Injury), F. Sakar (Ankle Injury), T. Schnitzer (Injury), S. Suso (Muscle Injury)
Form (Last 5)
- Home: L W D
- Away: W W D
H2H (Last 5)
- 2026-05-02 · Werder Bremen · 1-3 · FC Augsburg
- 2025-12-20 · FC Augsburg · 0-0 · Werder Bremen
- 2025-01-19 · Werder Bremen · 0-2 · FC Augsburg
- 2024-08-24 · FC Augsburg · 2-2 · Werder Bremen
- 2024-04-27 · FC Augsburg · 0-3 · Werder Bremen
Match Preview
Werder Bremen meet FC Augsburg in a Bundesliga fixture that looks finely balanced on paper, but the recent trend lines point toward the visitors. Augsburg arrive with 2 wins and 1 draw from their latest league sequence, a notably cleaner run than Bremen’s 1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss. That difference matters in a contest where both teams are still settling into the season and consistency can quickly decide momentum.
Werder have had their share of injury disruption, with F. Agu, M. N'Diaye, J. Njinmah, J. Stage and K. Topp all missing, while S. Lynen is also questionable. Those absences take away pace, energy and rotation in key areas, and they arrive just as Augsburg have begun to look more assured. The visitors’ own squad is not untouched, with T. Breithaupt and A. Kade unavailable, but their recent performances suggest they have handled those setbacks better.
The H2H record also gives Augsburg a useful psychological edge. They won the most recent league meeting at Bremen, and the older results include another away victory plus two draws, so this is not a venue where Werder have consistently imposed themselves. That background is important because it supports the idea that Augsburg know how to make this matchup uncomfortable for the hosts.
The model leans slightly to Bremen in the raw 1X2 race, but only by a small margin, and the broader forecast context is more revealing: both teams are likely to find scoring chances, with goals at both ends looking more probable than a tight defensive battle. Even so, Augsburg’s form, the head-to-head edge, and Bremen’s injury list make the visitors the more persuasive choice over 90 minutes.
This should be a close, lively game, but the steadier side is FC Augsburg.
ScoreCast Pick
FC Augsburg win • Odds 2.80 • Confidence 7/10
Odds are valid as of September 17, 2026, 21:27 CET.