Vitoria
vs
Gremio
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Vitoria are the model's most likely winner at 45.0%, with a clearer model edge, with the BTTS outlook finely balanced.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6% | 9.1% | 4.8% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 12.1% | 12.7% | 6.7% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 8.5% | 8.9% | 4.7% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 3.9% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
Vitoria win
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 45.0%
- Model fair odds
- 2.22
- Available odds
- 2.10
- Expected value
- -5.6%
Odds are valid as of September 5, 2026, 10:44 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- Vitoria: Alex Bruno (Inactive), Camutanga (Broken Leg), Dudu (Back Injury), Edu (Achilles Tendon Injury), Nathan Mendes (Knee Injury), T. Pochettino (Inactive), R. Ramos (Knee Injury), Riccieli (Calf Injury), Anderson (Knee Injury), Ramon (Injury)
- Gremio: Dodi (Knee Injury), Marlon (Yellow Cards)
Form (Last 5)
- Home: L L W L L
- Away: D W L L W
H2H (Last 5)
- 2026-03-19 · Gremio · 2-0 · Vitoria
- 2025-09-28 · Gremio · 3-1 · Vitoria
- 2025-04-27 · Vitoria · 1-1 · Gremio
- 2024-12-04 · Vitoria · 1-1 · Gremio
- 2024-07-21 · Gremio · 2-0 · Vitoria
Match Preview
Vitoria host Grêmio in a match that sits just ahead of the season’s middle phase but already carries some weight. Vitoria’s league position is not elite, yet their home profile and current form give them a usable edge. Grêmio arrive with a respectable, if unspectacular, record and enough experience to make this difficult, but they have not shown enough consistency to be treated as the stronger side away from home.
The injury picture is significant for Vitoria, who are missing a long list that includes Camutanga, Dudu, Edu, Nathan Mendes, T. Pochettino, R. Ramos and Riccieli. That is a real blow and it narrows the margin for error. Even so, Grêmio also have reasons for caution, and the home team’s advantage in territory and familiarity still matters in a Brazilian Serie A fixture where the pace often suits the hosts.
The head-to-head record gives the visitors some encouragement, as Grêmio have won the last two league meetings by scores of 2-0 and 3-1. Yet the broader history also includes two draws, so Vitoria are not facing a matchup that has consistently gone against them. At home, they have usually found a way to make Grêmio work for everything.
The model leans slightly toward Vitoria, with home win the most likely outcome and 1-1, 1-0 and 0-1 all appearing in a compact score range. That tells us this is likely to be tight rather than one-sided, but the home side still carries the sharper case in a game that could be decided by a single decisive moment.
ScoreCast Pick
Vitoria win • Odds 2.10 • Confidence 6/10
Odds are valid as of September 5, 2026, 10:44 CET.