VfB Stuttgart
vs
Borussia Dortmund
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
VfB Stuttgart are the model's most likely winner at 41.9%, although the forecast remains competitive and slightly favors both teams to score.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 5.7% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 5.1% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 3.1% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.4% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 5 | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
VfB Stuttgart win
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 41.9%
- Model fair odds
- 2.39
- Available odds
- 2.35
- Expected value
- -1.5%
Odds are valid as of September 17, 2026, 11:45 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- VfB Stuttgart: L. Assignon (Shoulder Injury), J. Diehl (Muscle Injury), N. Nartey (Thigh Injury), D. Seimen (Thigh Injury), T. Tomas (Muscle Injury), D. Zagadou (Muscle Injury), L. Jaquez (Muscle Injury), A. Stiller (Knee Injury)
- Borussia Dortmund: E. Can (Knee Injury), M. Kaba (Injury), K. Karetsas (Health problems), G. Konstantelias (Knee Injury)
Form (Last 5)
- Home: L W L
- Away: W W W
H2H (Last 5)
- 2026-04-04 · VfB Stuttgart · 0-2 · Borussia Dortmund
- 2025-11-22 · Borussia Dortmund · 3-3 · VfB Stuttgart
- 2025-02-08 · Borussia Dortmund · 1-2 · VfB Stuttgart
- 2024-09-22 · VfB Stuttgart · 5-1 · Borussia Dortmund
- 2024-04-06 · Borussia Dortmund · 0-1 · VfB Stuttgart
Match Preview
VfB Stuttgart host Borussia Dortmund in one of the more intriguing Bundesliga fixtures of the round. Both teams arrive with credible ambitions, but the early-season context makes this a sharp test of Stuttgart’s resilience against a Dortmund side that has started well and looks dangerous in transition.
Stuttgart’s recent form is mixed, with 1 win and 2 losses, while Dortmund arrive with 3 wins from 3 and the cleaner overall momentum. On paper, that gives the visitors a strong platform. Yet Stuttgart are at home, and that has been a meaningful factor in this matchup before. Their own performances in front of their supporters have often raised their level against top opponents.
The injury picture is a concern for Stuttgart. L. Assignon, J. Diehl, N. Nartey, D. Seimen, T. Tomas and D. Zagadou are out, while L. Jaquez and A. Stiller are questionable. That is a substantial hit to squad depth, especially in areas where Dortmund can stretch teams and force defensive decisions. Even so, Stuttgart still carry enough attacking threat to make this a demanding visit for the visitors.
The head-to-head record adds another layer. Dortmund beat Stuttgart 2-0 in the league in Stuttgart last season, but the meetings before that were often lively, including a 3-3 draw in Dortmund and Stuttgart’s emphatic 5-1 home win the season before. That recent history suggests Stuttgart know how to trouble this opponent, especially when the game becomes open.
The model forecast sees Stuttgart narrowly ahead in the most likely single outcome, though the overall scoring profile suggests this could be a high-event match. That fits the sense that Dortmund are strong enough to compete, but not necessarily strong enough to erase Stuttgart’s home advantage.
ScoreCast Pick
VfB Stuttgart win • Odds 2.35 • Confidence 6/10
Odds are valid as of September 17, 2026, 11:45 CET.