Venezia
vs
Lazio
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Lazio are the model's most likely winner at 49.0%, with a clearer model edge and slightly favors both teams to score.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 7.0% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 4.0% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
Lazio win
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 49.0%
- Model fair odds
- 2.04
- Available odds
- 1.95
- Expected value
- -4.4%
Odds are valid as of September 17, 2026, 11:45 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- Venezia: A. Adorante (Hernia), T. Basic (Foot Injury), A. Bella-Kotchap (Injury), M. Dagasso (Inactive), B. Franjic (Injury), M. Sverko (Hip Injury), G. Busio (Injury), M. Moreno (Injury)
- Lazio: F. Dele-Bashiru (Muscle Injury), D. Doekhi (Hand Injury), A. Furlanetto (Knee Injury), A. Marusic (Muscle Injury)
Form (Last 5)
- Home: L L L L
- Away: W W W D
H2H (Last 5)
- 2025-02-22 · Venezia · 0-0 · Lazio
- 2024-08-18 · Lazio · 3-1 · Venezia
- 2022-07-22 · Lazio · Venezia
- 2022-03-14 · Lazio · 1-0 · Venezia
- 2021-12-22 · Venezia · 1-3 · Lazio
Match Preview
Lazio head to Venezia with the steadier form, the stronger recent results and the clearer sense of direction. Venezia come in on the back of four straight losses, and that kind of momentum is hard to ignore, especially against a side like Lazio that has collected three wins and a draw from its last four.
The table and recent history both support the visitors. Lazio are already well placed early in the season, while Venezia’s start has left them chasing the pack. Head-to-head meetings also favour Lazio: the most recent league clash ended goalless in Venice, but Lazio won 3-1 in Rome and have generally looked the more composed side in this matchup over time.
Venezia’s injuries deepen the concern. A. Adorante, T. Basic, A. Bella-Kotchap, M. Dagasso, B. Franjic and M. Sverko are unavailable, with G. Busio and M. Moreno also doubtful. That limits both defensive resilience and attacking variety. Lazio are not listed here with the same level of disruption, which only strengthens the balance in their favour.
The model’s forecast points in the same direction, with Lazio projected to create more and to have the better chance of controlling the game. The likely scorelines cluster around narrow away victories, which suits the general feel of the matchup: Venezia may resist for spells, but Lazio should have enough quality to break them down.
A Lazio win is the natural conclusion and the one that fits the evidence best. Venezia’s current form, injury burden and lack of cutting edge all point to a difficult evening, while Lazio’s consistency suggests they can manage the job without needing a spectacular performance.
ScoreCast Pick
Lazio win • Odds 1.95 • Confidence 8/10
Odds are valid as of September 17, 2026, 11:45 CET.