Vasteras SK FK
vs
Djurgardens IF
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Djurgardens IF are the model's most likely winner at 52.6%, with a clearer model edge and slightly favors both teams to score.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| 1 | 5.4% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| 2 | 3.3% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
Djurgardens IF win
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 52.6%
- Model fair odds
- 1.90
- Available odds
- 1.80
- Expected value
- -5.3%
Odds are valid as of August 8, 2026, 07:36 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- Vasteras SK FK: M. Diallo (Health problems), F. Nsabiyumva (Foot Injury), J. Ring (Muscle Injury), M. Diallo (Health problems), F. Nsabiyumva (Foot Injury), J. Ring (Muscle Injury)
- Djurgardens IF: P. Langhoff (Hip Injury), D. Stensson (Health problems), P. Langhoff (Hip Injury), D. Stensson (Health problems)
Form (Last 5)
- Home: W W D W L
- Away: W W D W W
H2H (Last 5)
- 2026-08-03 · Djurgardens IF · 6-0 · Vasteras SK FK
- 2026-02-07 · Vasteras SK FK · 0-1 · Djurgardens IF
- 2025-01-25 · Vasteras SK FK · 3-3 · Djurgardens IF
- 2024-10-28 · Djurgardens IF · 2-1 · Vasteras SK FK
- 2024-05-05 · Vasteras SK FK · 0-2 · Djurgardens IF
Match Preview
Djurgardens IF head into this trip with the clearer quality edge and a dominant recent record in the matchup. Their most recent league visit to Västerås produced a 6-0 victory, and they also won 2-1 away in the Allsvenskan last season. Even the friendlies have leaned their way. That kind of consistency in the head-to-head gives the away side a strong psychological base.
Form and standing both support Djurgardens as the more complete team. They are sitting in the top three and are chasing the leaders, while Vasteras are around mid-table and still trying to find consistency. The hosts have been competitive enough across the season, but their current position and overall output suggest a side that can be exposed by higher-level opposition, especially one with Djurgardens’ attacking quality.
Injuries also tilt the picture. Vasteras are missing several players, including M. Diallo, F. Nsabiyumva and J. Ring, while Djurgardens have a couple of their own absentees but nothing that looks decisive enough to undermine their core strength. With both teams having enough pace and technical quality to create moments, this should not be read as a pure defensive grind, yet the visitors look more likely to control possession and impose themselves.
The forecast keeps Djurgardens as the most probable winner and points to a game where both teams can contribute to the scoring pattern. That fits the shape of the fixture: an away favourite with enough attacking depth to break through, but not necessarily the kind of team that always shuts the door completely.
Vasteras can make life awkward early, but over 90 minutes Djurgardens should have the superior answer in the final third and enough structure to take the points.
ScoreCast Pick
Djurgardens IF win • Odds 1.80 • Confidence 7/10
Odds are valid as of August 8, 2026, 07:36 CET.