Valencia
vs
Real Sociedad
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Real Sociedad are the model's most likely winner at 38.1%, although the forecast remains competitive, with the BTTS outlook finely balanced.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1% | 9.5% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 9.2% | 12.4% | 8.4% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 6.0% | 8.1% | 5.4% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 2.6% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
Real Sociedad win
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 38.1%
- Model fair odds
- 2.62
- Available odds
- 2.60
- Expected value
- -0.9%
Odds are valid as of September 18, 2026, 12:22 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- Valencia: S. Canos (Knee Injury), J. Copete (Ankle Injury), M. Diakhaby (Muscle Injury), D. Foulquier (Injury), D. Lopez (Knee Injury), U. Sadiq (Muscle Injury), C. Tarrega (Hamstring Injury), L. Rioja (Injury), S. Canos (Knee Injury), J. Copete (Ankle Injury)
- Real Sociedad: A. Odriozola (Knee Injury), I. Zubeldia (Injury)
Form (Last 5)
- Home: L L L L W
- Away: L W D W L
H2H (Last 5)
- 2026-05-17 · Real Sociedad · 3-4 · Valencia
- 2025-08-16 · Valencia · 1-1 · Real Sociedad
- 2025-01-19 · Valencia · 1-0 · Real Sociedad
- 2024-09-28 · Real Sociedad · 3-0 · Valencia
- 2024-05-16 · Real Sociedad · 1-0 · Valencia
Match Preview
Valencia host Real Sociedad in a La Liga meeting that carries more weight for the home side than the table might suggest. Valencia have made a poor start, sitting on just one win, one draw and four defeats from their opening run, while Real Sociedad are still uneven but a little more stable with 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses.
The main concern for Valencia is the amount of disruption in their squad. S. Canos, J. Copete, M. Diakhaby, D. Foulquier, D. Lopez and U. Sadiq are all unavailable, while L. Rioja is questionable. That is a substantial chunk of a team already struggling for rhythm. When a side is in that kind of condition, even home advantage can only do so much.
Real Sociedad are not flawless either, but they at least arrive with a clearer recent pattern. Their away performances have been mixed, yet the overall balance of quality still looks better than Valencia’s. The head-to-head record also leans in their direction: Real Sociedad won 3-0 at the Reale Arena and have generally had the sharper edge in the more recent meetings, although Valencia did edge them 1-0 at Mestalla last season. That makes the clash competitive, but not enough to erase the visitor advantage.
The model projects a fairly even match in terms of chances, which is exactly why this is unlikely to turn into a comfortable away stroll. Still, Real Sociedad’s ability to control phases of the game, combined with Valencia’s shortage of fit options, should help them dictate more of the contest. The expected score profile also hints at a tight, low-margin affair rather than a wide-open shootout.
Valencia can certainly make this difficult, especially with Mestalla behind them, but the cleaner squad picture and stronger recent evidence point to Real Sociedad having the more reliable route to three points.
ScoreCast Pick
Real Sociedad win • Odds 2.60 • Confidence 7/10
Odds are valid as of September 18, 2026, 12:22 CET.