Uta Arad
vs
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Uta Arad are the model's most likely winner at 50.1%, with a clearer model edge, with the BTTS outlook finely balanced.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8% | 7.8% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 12.1% | 12.1% | 6.1% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 9.4% | 9.4% | 4.7% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 4.8% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 1.9% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe or Draw
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 49.9%
- Model fair odds
- 2.00
- Available odds
- 1.83
- Expected value
- -8.6%
Odds are valid as of September 17, 2026, 15:51 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Form (Last 5)
- Home: L D W W L
- Away: D D W L W
H2H (Last 5)
- 2025-04-18 · Uta Arad · 1-1 · Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
- 2025-02-24 · Uta Arad · 1-2 · Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
- 2024-10-19 · Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe · 1-0 · Uta Arad
- 2024-01-27 · Uta Arad · 2-1 · Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
- 2023-09-04 · Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe · 1-0 · Uta Arad
Match Preview
Uta Arad versus Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe is the sort of Liga I meeting where recent rhythm and head-to-head history matter more than reputation. Sepsi come into the game with the cleaner recent profile, posting 3 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses compared with Uta Arad’s 2 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses. That alone gives the visitors a steadier base.
The table reinforces that picture. Sepsi sit above Uta Arad and have looked the more reliable side through the opening rounds, while Uta have struggled for continuity. Uta can still be dangerous at home, but they have not produced enough consistency to be trusted to dominate this sort of opponent.
The head-to-head record is also useful. Sepsi beat Uta Arad 2-0 in their latest league meeting, and before that the sides shared a draw in Arad. Looking further back, Sepsi have taken the better of the overall exchange, which matters when two teams are separated by only a small gap in the standings. That history suggests the visitors know how to manage this matchup.
Neither squad has major injury noise to navigate, so the football arguments stay centred on form, balance and game management. Sepsi have the more reliable attacking numbers and a better defensive base, while Uta’s recent results hint at a team that can compete but often struggles to turn that into three points.
The model’s lean is very close to the market’s view: Uta Arad are marginally favoured to win on the 1X2 side, but the broader forecast still keeps Sepsi competitive and well positioned to take something from the match. That makes the double-chance angle on the visitors the natural call here, and the locked ScoreCast Pick is Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe or Draw.
ScoreCast Pick
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe or Draw • Odds 1.83 • Confidence 6/10
Odds are valid as of September 17, 2026, 15:51 CET.