Udinese
vs
Cagliari
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Udinese are the model's most likely winner at 42.4%, although the forecast remains competitive, with the BTTS outlook finely balanced.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6% | 9.5% | 5.2% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 11.6% | 12.8% | 7.0% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 7.9% | 8.6% | 4.8% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 3.5% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
Udinese win
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 42.5%
- Model fair odds
- 2.36
- Available odds
- 2.25
- Expected value
- -4.5%
Odds are valid as of September 17, 2026, 15:57 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- Udinese: J. Arizala (Thigh Injury), M. Palma (Muscle Injury), J. Piotrowski (Heart Problems), O. Solet (Injury), N. Zaniolo (Thigh Injury), A. Zanoli (Knee Injury), J. Arizala (Thigh Injury)
- Cagliari: M. Felici (Knee Injury), R. Idrissi (Knee Injury), M. Nzola (Lacking Match Fitness), Y. Trepy (Injury), J. Pedro (Injury)
Form (Last 5)
- Home: D W L L
- Away: W L W W
H2H (Last 5)
- 2026-05-09 · Cagliari · 0-2 · Udinese
- 2025-10-05 · Udinese · 1-1 · Cagliari
- 2025-05-03 · Cagliari · 1-2 · Udinese
- 2024-10-25 · Udinese · 2-0 · Cagliari
- 2024-02-18 · Udinese · 1-1 · Cagliari
Match Preview
Udinese host Cagliari in a Serie A meeting that feels competitive on paper but leans toward the home side once the details are stacked together. Both teams have started the season respectably, with Cagliari slightly ahead in the standings, yet the context of this fixture matters: Udinese have the clearer head-to-head advantage and are playing at a venue where they can usually impose a more physical, direct rhythm.
Recent form suggests Cagliari have made the brighter start overall, with three wins and one loss across their opening games, while Udinese have been less consistent with one win, one draw and two defeats. Even so, the quality of their respective performances is not identical. Cagliari’s away profile has been more uneven, and that is important here because they have not always carried their good moments cleanly into difficult trips.
The injury picture also matters. Udinese are missing several players, but Cagliari are not arriving fully settled either, with M. Felici and R. Idrissi both unavailable. That limits their depth, especially if the game becomes a tactical scrap. Against Udinese’s usual shape and home intensity, that could be a problem.
The head-to-head record is especially persuasive. Udinese beat Cagliari 2-0 away in May 2026 and 2-0 at home in October 2024, while the longer history still favours the Friuli side in the key recent meetings. Cagliari have had some competitive results in the past, but Udinese have repeatedly found ways to control this pairing.
The model sees a home win as the most likely outcome, though not by a huge margin, which fits the expected tone of the game. Cagliari should make this hard, but Udinese have the better blend of matchup history, home advantage and overall control. ScoreCast Pick: Udinese win.
ScoreCast Pick
Udinese win • Odds 2.25 • Confidence 7/10
Odds are valid as of September 17, 2026, 15:57 CET.