Tottenham
vs
Aston Villa
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Tottenham are the model's most likely winner at 49.0%, with a clearer model edge and slightly favors both teams to score.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 10.0% | 11.5% | 6.6% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 8.3% | 9.5% | 5.5% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 4.6% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
Aston Villa or Draw
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 51.0%
- Model fair odds
- 1.96
- Available odds
- 1.80
- Expected value
- -8.2%
Odds are valid as of September 17, 2026, 11:45 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- Tottenham: D. Kulusevski (Knee Injury), M. Mudryk (Ankle Injury), W. Odobert (Knee Injury), P. Porro (Muscle Injury), Richarlison (Inactive), X. Simons (Knee Injury), S. Tonali (Injury)
- Aston Villa: L. Goretzka (Knee Injury), I. Maatsen (Ankle Injury), A. Onana (Knee Injury), P. Torres (Injury), B. Madjo (Ankle Injury)
Form (Last 5)
- Home: L L D D
- Away: L L D L
H2H (Last 5)
- 2026-05-03 · Aston Villa · 1-2 · Tottenham
- 2026-01-10 · Tottenham · 1-2 · Aston Villa
- 2025-10-19 · Tottenham · 1-2 · Aston Villa
- 2025-05-16 · Aston Villa · 2-0 · Tottenham
- 2025-02-09 · Aston Villa · 2-1 · Tottenham
Match Preview
Tottenham welcome Aston Villa in a Premier League meeting that already feels important for rhythm and confidence, even this early in the season. Neither side has found much consistency, but Spurs at least have the home setting to lean on, and that matters in a matchup where margins are likely to be small.
Tottenham’s recent form is imperfect, with 2 draws and 2 losses, yet Aston Villa arrive in even rougher shape after 1 draw and 3 losses. That alone does not settle the contest, but it does explain why the hosts are being framed as the more stable side despite their own problems. Spurs also have the more natural incentive to impose themselves at home and get back on track after a flat run.
Injuries complicate the picture for both managers. Tottenham are missing D. Kulusevski, M. Mudryk, W. Odobert, P. Porro, Richarlison, X. Simons and S. Tonali, which strips away creativity, width and a fair amount of attacking quality. Aston Villa are also without L. Goretzka, leaving them with one fewer midfield option and no obvious advantage in squad availability. The absences reduce Tottenham’s ceiling, but Villa’s own issues prevent them from gaining much ground.
The head-to-head record is another useful guide. Tottenham won 2-1 at Villa Park in the most recent league meeting, while Villa have also taken victories in cup and league matches over the last couple of seasons. That history suggests a competitive fixture rather than a one-sided one, but it also shows Spurs can live with Villa and have already proven capable of getting the better of them.
The broader forecast points to Tottenham as the likeliest single result, even though the match profile also leaves room for goals at both ends. Still, with Tottenham at home, Villa short on form, and the visitors not convincing enough to be trusted alone, the safer structure is to protect against a draw.
ScoreCast Pick
Aston Villa or Draw • Odds 1.80 • Confidence 6/10
Odds are valid as of September 17, 2026, 11:45 CET.