Swansea
vs
Burnley
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Swansea are the model's most likely winner at 45.3%, with a clearer model edge, with the BTTS outlook finely balanced.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1% | 8.1% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 10.6% | 12.2% | 7.0% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 7.9% | 9.1% | 5.3% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 4.0% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
Swansea win
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 45.3%
- Model fair odds
- 2.21
- Available odds
- 2.15
- Expected value
- -2.7%
Odds are valid as of September 11, 2026, 11:01 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- Swansea: C. Burgess (Achilles Tendon Injury), G. Franco (Ankle Injury), R. Stewart (Injury), C. Burgess (Achilles Tendon Injury)
- Burnley: E. Agyei (Injury), J. Banel (Injury), A. Barnes (Injury), J. Beyer (Hamstring Injury), J. Cullen (Knee Injury), B. Humphreys (Inactive), D. Satpaev (Hamstring Injury), H. Mejbri (Inactive)
Form (Last 5)
- Home: D W W D L
- Away: L L D L D
H2H (Last 5)
- 2025-03-15 · Swansea · 0-2 · Burnley
- 2024-11-10 · Burnley · 1-0 · Swansea
- 2023-01-02 · Swansea · 1-2 · Burnley
- 2022-10-15 · Burnley · 4-0 · Swansea
- 2018-02-10 · Swansea · 1-0 · Burnley
Match Preview
Swansea welcome Burnley in a game that looks far closer on paper than the table or recent feeling around the two clubs might suggest. Swansea’s form is encouraging, with three wins, two draws and one loss, and they have generally been more controlled in the league than Burnley, who come in with three draws and three losses. That contrast matters: Swansea have been finding ways to win, while Burnley have too often been settling for unfinished business.
At home, Swansea look a touch more reliable in the key moments. They have been organised enough to keep matches manageable, and their recent home work suggests they can absorb pressure and still create enough to decide a contest. Burnley, by contrast, have been vulnerable defensively and have struggled to turn decent spells into results. The injuries only deepen that concern, with Burnley missing several names including A. Barnes, J. Cullen, J. Beyer, E. Agyei and J. Banel. Swansea are not untouched either, but their list is lighter and easier to work around.
The head-to-head record adds some caution. Burnley won the most recent league meeting at Swansea and have had the better of this fixture across several recent encounters. That said, this Burnley side is arriving in a different moment, and the current run of results is the more relevant guide. Swansea’s early-season position near the top of the table also reflects a side that has carried more momentum into this fixture.
The model makes this a balanced game, but the home side still holds the edge once home advantage and Burnley’s injury burden are factored in. It is not a match that screams for comfort, yet Swansea have enough in form and structure to justify backing them to get the job done.
ScoreCast Pick
Swansea win • Odds 2.15 • Confidence 7/10
Odds are valid as of September 11, 2026, 11:01 CET.