Sparta Rotterdam
vs
Heerenveen
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Sparta Rotterdam are the model's most likely winner at 38.3%, although the forecast remains competitive and slightly favors both teams to score.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 6.5% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 5.2% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 2.8% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
Sparta Rotterdam win
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 38.3%
- Model fair odds
- 2.61
- Available odds
- 2.50
- Expected value
- -4.3%
Odds are valid as of September 17, 2026, 21:27 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- Sparta Rotterdam: S. Mito (Inactive), S. Mito (Inactive)
- Heerenveen: M. Egbring (Injury), M. Hilgers (Knee Injury), M. Linday (Inactive), D. Proper (Injury), M. Egbring (Injury), M. Hilgers (Knee Injury), M. Linday (Inactive), D. Proper (Injury)
Form (Last 5)
- Home: W D L D L
- Away: D L D L D
H2H (Last 5)
- 2026-02-28 · Heerenveen · 2-1 · Sparta Rotterdam
- 2025-12-14 · Sparta Rotterdam · 0-3 · Heerenveen
- 2025-04-12 · Sparta Rotterdam · 3-1 · Heerenveen
- 2024-10-26 · Heerenveen · 2-0 · Sparta Rotterdam
- 2024-05-19 · Sparta Rotterdam · 2-1 · Heerenveen
Match Preview
Sparta Rotterdam host Heerenveen in a match that looks far more balanced than the home odds might suggest. Sparta have had an uneven start, with one win, two draws and three defeats, but there are enough signs of attacking life to keep belief alive. Heerenveen’s record is similar in overall shape - one win, three draws and two losses - yet their travels and defensive output make them vulnerable when games become stretched.
The most important context is that this pairing has produced away success and tight contests in recent meetings. Heerenveen won 2-1 in their last league visit to this match-up, and they also took a 3-0 win at Sparta earlier in the run. Sparta have replied with home wins of their own, so the head-to-head history is not one-sided, but it does underline that neither club can assume comfort here.
Injury lists add a further layer of uncertainty. Sparta are missing S. Mito, while Heerenveen are without M. Egbring, M. Hilgers, M. Linday and D. Proper. That leaves both benches thinner than ideal, especially in areas where structure and timing matter. Heerenveen’s away numbers also suggest they can concede enough to make life difficult for themselves, while Sparta have been involved in enough open games to believe chances will come.
The model’s most likely scoreline cluster sits around 1-1, 1-2 and 2-1, which is a useful guide: this is a match where the margins are slim, but Sparta’s home edge nudges them slightly ahead. Heerenveen are capable of making it awkward, and their direct threat means this is not a fixture to overstate. Still, Sparta have just enough about them at home to justify backing them to come through.
ScoreCast Pick
Sparta Rotterdam win • Odds 2.50 • Confidence 6/10
Odds are valid as of September 17, 2026, 21:27 CET.