Sonderjyske
vs
Viborg
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Viborg are the model's most likely winner at 43.4%, although the forecast remains competitive and slightly favors both teams to score.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 7.1% | 11.3% | 9.0% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 4.8% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 2.1% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
Viborg win
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 43.4%
- Model fair odds
- 2.31
- Available odds
- 2.15
- Expected value
- -6.8%
Odds are valid as of August 5, 2026, 09:25 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- Sonderjyske: T. Klysner (Inactive), P. Kristensen (Inactive), R. Vinderslev (Injury), T. Klysner (Inactive), P. Kristensen (Inactive), R. Vinderslev (Injury)
- Viborg: T. Freriks (Knock), M. Hoedemakers (Inactive), Y. Njoh (Injury), M. Riahi (Knee Injury), T. Freriks (Knock), M. Hoedemakers (Inactive)
Form (Last 5)
- Home: L L
- Away: W L
H2H (Last 5)
- 2026-05-08 · Viborg · 0-1 · Sonderjyske
- 2026-04-12 · Sonderjyske · 0-2 · Viborg
- 2025-11-28 · Sonderjyske · 2-2 · Viborg
- 2025-08-08 · Viborg · 1-0 · Sonderjyske
- 2025-04-27 · Sonderjyske · 2-2 · Viborg
Match Preview
Viborg head into this trip with the stronger overall case, even if the gap is not huge. The early-season table shows Viborg sitting above Sonderjyske and already picking up points more smoothly, while the hosts are still searching for their first positive result after back-to-back defeats. That matters in a league fixture where momentum can quickly shape the tone of the contest.
Form also points Viborg’s way. Sonderjyske have started with 2 losses, while Viborg arrive with 1 win and 1 loss and have shown a little more balance in their opening games. The recent head-to-head record strengthens that view: Viborg beat Sonderjyske 1-0 away and 2-0 at home in their last two league meetings, while the broader series has often leaned in Viborg’s direction. Sonderjyske can compete, but Viborg have been the more reliable side in this matchup.
There are injury concerns for both squads. Sonderjyske are missing T. Klysner, P. Kristensen and R. Vinderslev, while Viborg have several absences of their own, including T. Freriks, M. Hoedemakers, Y. Njoh and M. Riahi. That keeps the margin of superiority from becoming too wide, especially in a fixture that could still be decided by a single moment.
The model’s most useful signal is that Viborg are more likely to edge the result than not, although the score outlook is not especially one-sided. That fits the broader picture: Viborg look the better side, but Sonderjyske have enough home threat to make it awkward. Expect a balanced game rather than a procession, yet Viborg’s current edge in form and head-to-head history makes them the likelier winners.
ScoreCast Pick
Viborg win • Odds 2.15 • Confidence 5/10
Odds are valid as of August 5, 2026, 09:25 CET.