Somalia
vs
Ivory Coast
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Ivory Coast are the model's most likely winner at 65.3%, with a clearer model edge and slightly favors at least one clean sheet.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5% | 16.7% | 14.6% | 8.5% | 3.7% | 1.3% |
| 1 | 5.7% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 5.1% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
Ivory Coast -3
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
This market is outside the current Value Engine coverage. The selection reflects the broader match analysis rather than a validated pricing edge.
Why?
This market is not supported by the current Value Engine.
Odds are valid as of September 28, 2026, 13:02 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Form (Last 5)
- Home: D W L
- Away: W
Match Preview
Somalia face a very steep assignment against an Ivory Coast side that already looks built to dictate this kind of qualifier. The Ivorians arrive with the stronger squad, the cleaner recent form and the more convincing attacking projection, while Somalia’s task is mainly to stay compact and survive long spells without the ball. In a group-stage setting, that usually points toward a controlled away performance.
The recent numbers make the mismatch clear enough. Somalia have mixed signals from a small sample, with one win, one draw and one loss, but the attacking ceiling remains modest. Ivory Coast come in with a win behind them and the kind of defensive platform that can turn away from home into a routine, professional job. The model projects Ivory Coast at 1.75 expected goals and Somalia at only 0.6, which is a meaningful separation and fits the shape of a one-sided contest.
The broader market picture also supports that interpretation. Ivory Coast are the most likely winners by a comfortable margin, and the most plausible scorelines cluster around 0-1, 0-2 and 1-1. That suggests a match the visitors should manage rather than one they must chase from an awkward position. Somalia have shown they can compete in patches, but against a side with this much control in midfield and this much depth in attack, their margin for error is slim.
There is no need to overstate the risk of an upset, but there is a reason the locked selection goes beyond a simple away win. The expectation is that Ivory Coast create enough separation over ninety minutes to justify a stronger handicap line if they play to their level.
ScoreCast Pick
Ivory Coast -3 • Odds 1.82 • Confidence 7/10
Odds are valid as of September 28, 2026, 13:02 CET.