Slavia Sofia
vs
CSKA 1948
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
CSKA 1948 are the model's most likely winner at 51.3%, with a clearer model edge, with the BTTS outlook finely balanced.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2% | 12.7% | 9.9% | 5.1% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 7.8% | 12.1% | 9.4% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 3.7% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
CSKA 1948 win
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 51.3%
- Model fair odds
- 1.95
- Available odds
- 1.80
- Expected value
- -7.7%
Odds are valid as of September 17, 2026, 15:51 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Form (Last 5)
- Home: D D L W D
- Away: W L W L W
H2H (Last 5)
- 2026-02-27 · Slavia Sofia · 0-2 · CSKA 1948
- 2025-12-13 · Slavia Sofia · 2-3 · CSKA 1948
- 2025-09-15 · CSKA 1948 · 3-1 · Slavia Sofia
- 2025-05-02 · Slavia Sofia · 0-1 · CSKA 1948
- 2025-02-17 · Slavia Sofia · 1-1 · CSKA 1948
Match Preview
Slavia Sofia host CSKA 1948 in a First League fixture that looks finely poised at first glance, but the underlying numbers point toward the visitors. CSKA 1948 arrive with 6 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, a far sharper run than Slavia’s 2 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses. That gap in attacking output and overall rhythm is difficult to dismiss.
Slavia have been awkward enough to avoid defeat on a regular basis, but they have also drawn too many matches and have lacked the cutting edge to turn those tight contests into wins. CSKA 1948, by contrast, have been more decisive and have shown they can finish games strongly. Their recent results suggest a team that is better equipped to handle pressure moments.
The head-to-head record supports that reading. CSKA 1948 beat Slavia 2-0 in the most recent league meeting, and they also won the cup tie after extra time. Earlier league and cup clashes have tended to tilt toward the visitors or end with CSKA 1948 having the clearer punch in the decisive phases. That matters in a match where margins are likely to remain narrow for a long stretch.
Slavia’s home setting will keep this competitive, and their record of drawing plenty of matches means CSKA 1948 will not have everything their own way. Still, the visitors bring the better combination of form, scoring power and head-to-head confidence. The model mirrors that balance, giving CSKA 1948 the narrowest of edges in the 1X2 market while keeping the draw in the frame.
This is not a match that screams runaway scoreline, but the away side should have enough to avoid defeat and maybe take the points if they handle the middle phases well. The locked ScoreCast Pick is CSKA 1948 win.
ScoreCast Pick
CSKA 1948 win • Odds 1.80 • Confidence 7/10
Odds are valid as of September 17, 2026, 15:51 CET.