Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
vs
FCSB
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
FCSB are the model's most likely winner at 47.7%, with a clearer model edge, with the BTTS outlook finely balanced.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1% | 11.0% | 8.5% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 7.8% | 12.0% | 9.3% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 4.3% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 1.6% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
FCSB win
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 47.7%
- Model fair odds
- 2.10
- Available odds
- 1.85
- Expected value
- -11.8%
Odds are valid as of August 8, 2026, 07:36 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Form (Last 5)
- Home: L W D
- Away: W W D
H2H (Last 5)
- 2025-02-09 · FCSB · 3-0 · Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
- 2024-09-29 · Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe · 0-1 · FCSB
- 2024-04-24 · Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe · 2-2 · FCSB
- 2024-03-17 · FCSB · 2-1 · Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
- 2024-02-11 · FCSB · 1-0 · Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Match Preview
FCSB arrive in stronger shape and with the clearer league momentum, sitting above Sepsi in the early table after a more productive opening to the season. Sepsi have been competitive enough, but their recent profile is still mixed, and this is a tougher assignment against one of the division’s most established contenders.
The head-to-head record adds to that impression. FCSB beat Sepsi 3-0 in their most recent league meeting and also won 1-0 at this venue in the spring. The only exception in the recent run was a 2-2 draw in Cluj-Napoca, which shows Sepsi can make this awkward at times, but the balance of results still favours the visitors. FCSB usually carry more control in these games, especially when they get the first goal.
Sepsi’s home advantage keeps the contest live, but their current league form does not suggest enough sharpness to be confident of taking points against a side that already looks more settled. FCSB’s start has been cleaner, and their attacking edge is reflected in the stronger early standings. The independent forecast also leans toward the visitors, while the scores most often cluster around tight wins rather than anything dramatic.
There are no injury distractions to tilt the picture either way, so the game should be decided mostly by quality and current rhythm. Sepsi can compete, but FCSB look better equipped to manage the key moments and leave with all three points. Game management, substitutions and set pieces may also influence how the contest develops after the opening exchanges.
ScoreCast Pick
FCSB win • Odds 1.85 • Confidence 7/10
Odds are valid as of August 8, 2026, 07:36 CET.