SC Paderborn 07
vs
1899 Hoffenheim
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
1899 Hoffenheim are the model's most likely winner at 53.7%, with a clearer model edge and slightly favors both teams to score.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| 1 | 5.1% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 6.3% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| 2 | 3.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
1899 Hoffenheim -0.75
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
This market is outside the current Value Engine coverage. The selection reflects the broader match analysis rather than a validated pricing edge.
Why?
This market is not supported by the current Value Engine.
Odds are valid as of September 18, 2026, 12:23 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- SC Paderborn 07: N. Awortwie-Grant (Knee Injury), L. Eickel (Back Injury), T. Gayret (Knee Injury), S. Klaas (Muscle Injury), S. Michel (Muscle Injury), N. Awortwie-Grant (Knee Injury), L. Eickel (Back Injury), T. Gayret (Knee Injury), S. Klaas (Muscle Injury), S. Michel (Muscle Injury)
Form (Last 5)
- Home: D L L
- Away: L L W
H2H (Last 5)
- 2020-05-23 · SC Paderborn 07 · 1-1 · 1899 Hoffenheim
- 2019-11-01 · 1899 Hoffenheim · 3-0 · SC Paderborn 07
- 2015-03-21 · SC Paderborn 07 · 0-0 · 1899 Hoffenheim
- 2014-10-25 · 1899 Hoffenheim · 1-0 · SC Paderborn 07
Match Preview
SC Paderborn 07 go into this Bundesliga meeting under pressure, with little in their recent form to suggest a breakthrough. A run of 1 draw and 2 losses reflects a side struggling to turn possession into points, and the injury list does not help, especially with several absences in key areas of the squad. Even at home, Paderborn have not shown enough cutting edge, and their recent scoring numbers are a concern against a team that can punish mistakes quickly.
1899 Hoffenheim are not arriving in perfect shape either, but they have shown more in attack and carry the stronger overall profile. Their recent record of 1 win and 2 losses is uneven, yet the goals data is far more encouraging, and the model’s projection gives them the clearer edge in a match that should be competitive but tilted toward the visitors. Hoffenheim’s capacity to score multiple times is an important factor here, especially against a home side that has conceded regularly and has found it hard to respond when games get away from them.
The head-to-head record also leans Hoffenheim’s way when you look beyond the isolated 1-1 draw in Paderborn’s stadium. Hoffenheim have previously handled this fixture well, including a comfortable away win, and that history matters because it points to a side more comfortable managing the contest. Paderborn will need a disciplined start to stay involved, but if Hoffenheim establish rhythm in the final third, the balance of the game should move in their favour.
This is not a fixture where the home side can be backed lightly on current evidence. Hoffenheim look the more reliable side across form, attacking threat, and matchup history, so the locked ScoreCast Pick is 1899 Hoffenheim -0.75.
ScoreCast Pick
1899 Hoffenheim -0.75 • Odds 1.82 • Confidence 7/10
Odds are valid as of September 18, 2026, 12:23 CET.