Sandefjord
vs
KFUM Oslo
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Sandefjord are the model's most likely winner at 45.5%, with a clearer model edge and slightly favors both teams to score.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 9.3% | 11.6% | 7.2% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 7.4% | 9.3% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 3.9% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
Sandefjord win
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 45.5%
- Model fair odds
- 2.20
- Available odds
- 2.05
- Expected value
- -6.6%
Odds are valid as of August 5, 2026, 09:25 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- Sandefjord: F. Loftesnes-Bjune (Thigh Injury), M. Melchior (Knee Injury), F. Loftesnes-Bjune (Thigh Injury), M. Melchior (Knee Injury)
- KFUM Oslo: A. Aleesami (Groin Injury), M. Njie (Muscle Injury), E. Odegaard (Injury), A. Aleesami (Groin Injury), M. Njie (Muscle Injury), E. Odegaard (Injury)
Form (Last 5)
- Home: L D L L L
- Away: D L L L W
H2H (Last 5)
- 2026-04-07 · KFUM Oslo · 1-2 · Sandefjord
- 2025-11-30 · Sandefjord · 2-0 · KFUM Oslo
- 2025-03-30 · KFUM Oslo · 3-1 · Sandefjord
- 2025-03-15 · Sandefjord · 1-0 · KFUM Oslo
- 2024-10-27 · Sandefjord · 2-1 · KFUM Oslo
Match Preview
Sandefjord and KFUM Oslo meet in a game that looks finely balanced on paper, yet the context slightly favours the hosts. Sandefjord have the better home backdrop and have already beaten KFUM twice in recent competitive meetings, including a 2-0 win in Sandefjord and a 2-1 victory away from home. That head-to-head edge matters in a fixture where margins are usually narrow.
Neither side arrives in sparkling form, with both sitting on 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses. That shared record underlines how difficult this matchup is to call, but Sandefjord’s previous home success in this rivalry gives them a useful reference point. KFUM Oslo will not be overawed, though, especially with Sandefjord carrying a couple of fitness concerns. F. Loftesnes-Bjune is missing, while M. Melchior is still questionable, which could limit the hosts’ options in key areas.
KFUM Oslo have injury issues of their own, with A. Aleesami unavailable and M. Njie plus E. Odegaard doubts. That weakens an away side already trying to find consistency on the road. The model leans toward a home win, but only narrowly, and the score profile suggests this could be a game with goals at both ends rather than a controlled Sandefjord performance. In other words, the most likely 90-minute outcome is a Sandefjord victory, yet the path there may be messy and competitive.
With both teams showing similar recent results and both having personnel gaps, the case for Sandefjord comes down to home advantage, better H2H evidence and slightly more convincing match control in this pairing. A close game feels likely, but the hosts have enough to get it done.
ScoreCast Pick
Sandefjord win • Odds 2.05 • Confidence 6/10
Odds are valid as of August 5, 2026, 09:25 CET.