Rosenborg
vs
Tromso
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Rosenborg are the model's most likely winner at 54.9%, with a clearer model edge and slightly favors both teams to score.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 9.7% | 10.7% | 5.9% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 9.0% | 9.9% | 5.4% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 5.5% | 6.1% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 2.6% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
Rosenborg -0.75
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
This market is outside the current Value Engine coverage. The selection reflects the broader match analysis rather than a validated pricing edge.
Why?
This market is not supported by the current Value Engine.
Odds are valid as of September 10, 2026, 21:46 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- Rosenborg: J. Bakke (Injury), I. Fossum (Thigh Injury), D. Islamovic (Leg Injury), J. Reitan-Sunde (Injury), J. Svensson (Thigh Injury), J. Bakke (Injury), I. Fossum (Thigh Injury), D. Islamovic (Leg Injury)
- Tromso: D. Braut (Hip Injury), M. Tonnessen (Injury), C. Oyvann (Injury), V. Skjaervik (Injury)
Form (Last 5)
- Away: W W L D L
H2H (Last 5)
- 2026-04-06 · Tromso · 2-0 · Rosenborg
- 2025-11-22 · Tromso · 1-0 · Rosenborg
- 2025-07-27 · Rosenborg · 4-1 · Tromso
- 2024-08-04 · Rosenborg · 1-0 · Tromso
- 2024-05-20 · Tromso · 3-2 · Rosenborg
Match Preview
Rosenborg return home needing a response after a difficult run in this fixture, but they have enough quality to make this an awkward afternoon for Tromso. The hosts sit sixth in the table and are still close enough to the European places to treat this as a major point in the season, while Tromso arrive third and have shown they belong near the top. That combination points to a competitive game rather than a routine home win.
The market leans toward Rosenborg, and there are reasons for that. Their home profile has generally been stronger than their overall results suggest, and the most likely scoreline model points toward a narrow margin rather than a runaway. Rosenborg’s attacking output at Lerkendal has been good enough to trouble most opponents, and the match-up also has a familiar edge: the teams have produced several tight meetings, including Rosenborg’s 4-1 home win last season and earlier low-scoring battles in Trondheim.
Tromso, though, cannot be written off. Their league form reads 10 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses, and they have been hard to shake in the top end of the table. Even with a couple of absences and a questionable defender, they still look organised enough to stay in the contest. Rosenborg’s injury list is heavier, with several players missing, which is one reason the handicap is more ambitious than a simple home win.
That is the key angle here: Rosenborg are the likelier winners, but the cushion required is far from guaranteed against a well-drilled Tromso side. The most useful model signal is the home win leaning just above the draw and away win, while goals should not be scarce in a game where both attacks have shown enough to score.
Rosenborg to win, Rosenborg -0.75.
ScoreCast Pick
Rosenborg -0.75 • Odds 1.90 • Confidence 6/10
Odds are valid as of September 10, 2026, 21:46 CET.