PSV Eindhoven
vs
Shakhtar Donetsk
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
PSV Eindhoven are the model's most likely winner at 63.5%, with a clearer model edge and slightly favors both teams to score.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 8.5% | 9.0% | 4.7% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 9.4% | 9.9% | 5.2% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 6.9% | 7.2% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 3.8% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 1.7% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
PSV Eindhoven -1.25
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
This market is outside the current Value Engine coverage. The selection reflects the broader match analysis rather than a validated pricing edge.
Why?
This market is not supported by the current Value Engine.
Odds are valid as of September 8, 2026, 10:28 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- PSV Eindhoven: M. Bro Hansen (Injury), D. Man (Inactive), Mauro Junior (Red Card), A. Nagalo (Off the roster), S. Ouaissa (Muscle Injury), A. Plea (Injury), J. Schouten (Knee Injury), K. Sildillia (Inactive), A. Obispo (Injury)
- Shakhtar Donetsk: V. Korniyenko (Off the roster), P. Obah (Off the roster), T. Puzankov (Off the roster)
H2H (Last 5)
- 2024-11-27 · PSV Eindhoven · 3-2 · Shakhtar Donetsk
Match Preview
PSV Eindhoven return to the Champions League with a fixture that immediately looks favourable on home soil. Shakhtar Donetsk have enough European know-how to avoid being written off, but the balance of power clearly leans toward PSV when you combine home advantage, stronger attacking intent and a positive head-to-head memory from their previous meeting. PSV won that encounter 3-2 after a dramatic turnaround, which underlines both their resilience and their ability to find goals when needed.
The visitors do not arrive without a threat, but their profile suggests they may struggle to match PSV’s pace and pressure for long stretches. PSV’s projected numbers point to a home side that should spend more time in the final third, while Shakhtar’s away scoring expectation is comparatively modest. That makes a clean, commanding home performance more plausible than a chaotic shootout.
Injuries do add some complexity for PSV, with Mauro Junior suspended and several others missing, but the squad still carries enough depth to handle the gaps. Shakhtar, too, have their own issues, and the key point is that the home side should still have the stronger XI in the moments that matter. If PSV start quickly, they can force Shakhtar into a reactive shape and control the tempo from there.
The score outlook points to a home win with a decent chance of a multi-goal margin, most likely through something like 2-0 or 2-1. That aligns with a team that has the better balance in attack and enough structure to prevent the game from drifting.
ScoreCast Pick
PSV Eindhoven -1.25 • Odds 1.90 • Confidence 6/10
Odds are valid as of September 8, 2026, 10:28 CET.