Parma
vs
Genoa
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Genoa are the model's most likely winner at 39.4%, although the forecast remains competitive, with the BTTS outlook finely balanced.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5% | 12.6% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 11.1% | 13.3% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 5.8% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
Genoa win
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 39.4%
- Model fair odds
- 2.54
- Available odds
- 2.45
- Expected value
- -3.4%
Odds are valid as of September 18, 2026, 12:23 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- Parma: H. Nicolussi Caviglia (Groin Injury), O. Diallo (Injury), H. Nicolussi Caviglia (Groin Injury), O. Diallo (Injury)
- Genoa: E. Havel (Ankle Injury), J. Vasquez (Red Card), L. Venturino (Knee Injury), E. Havel (Ankle Injury), J. Vasquez (Red Card), L. Venturino (Knee Injury)
Form (Last 5)
- Home: L L D L
- Away: L L L D
H2H (Last 5)
- 2026-01-18 · Parma · 0-0 · Genoa
- 2025-10-19 · Genoa · 0-0 · Parma
- 2025-01-12 · Genoa · 1-0 · Parma
- 2024-11-04 · Parma · 0-1 · Genoa
- 2023-02-05 · Parma · 2-0 · Genoa
Match Preview
Parma versus Genoa is exactly the sort of Serie A fixture that can hinge on small margins rather than flashy momentum. Neither side arrives in convincing form, with Parma on 1 draw and 3 losses and Genoa on 1 draw and 3 losses as well. That shared struggle suggests a tense, low-margin contest, but the finer details slightly favour the visitors.
Parma have had trouble building any sort of attacking rhythm, and the injuries do not help, particularly in central areas where control and progression matter. Genoa have not been much cleaner in front of goal, yet their overall defensive profile and their ability to stay in games give them a narrow edge. In a match where neither side has been reliable, the team that can manage the small details more efficiently often ends up with the point - or the win.
The head-to-head record is worth paying attention to. Recent meetings have been low-scoring and tight, including two goalless draws and a narrow Genoa away win. That history fits the current setup well: both teams are short on confidence, both have struggled for fluency, and neither looks likely to dominate for long stretches. The safest read is that Genoa are better placed to capitalize if the match opens up late.
The model’s strongest signal is not a runaway away performance, but a modest Genoa advantage in a game where a single moment could decide it. That aligns with the broader evidence. Parma may make things awkward, yet Genoa look the more dependable side to back, and the locked ScoreCast Pick is Genoa win.
ScoreCast Pick
Genoa win • Odds 2.45 • Confidence 6/10
Odds are valid as of September 18, 2026, 12:23 CET.