Pardubice
vs
FK Jablonec
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Pardubice are the model's most likely winner at 39.2%, although the forecast remains competitive, with the BTTS outlook finely balanced.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4% | 9.3% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 10.0% | 12.5% | 7.8% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 6.8% | 8.5% | 5.3% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 3.0% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
Pardubice win
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 39.2%
- Model fair odds
- 2.55
- Available odds
- 2.45
- Expected value
- -4.0%
Odds are valid as of July 31, 2026, 09:46 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Form (Last 5)
- Home: L
- Away: W
H2H (Last 5)
- 2026-02-15 · Pardubice · 0-2 · FK Jablonec
- 2025-09-14 · FK Jablonec · 3-2 · Pardubice
- 2025-04-13 · FK Jablonec · 1-0 · Pardubice
- 2024-11-09 · Pardubice · 2-0 · FK Jablonec
- 2024-05-16 · FK Jablonec · 3-0 · Pardubice
Match Preview
Pardubice and FK Jablonec meet early in the Czech Liga season with both sides still shaping their rhythm, but the home side may have just enough going for them. Pardubice have already taken a setback in their opening match, yet they return to their own ground with the chance to reset quickly. Jablonec, meanwhile, arrive off a win and will feel they are in slightly better standing, but this remains a close contest on paper.
The recent head-to-head record is useful here. Pardubice beat Jablonec 2-0 at home in February, while Jablonec responded with a 3-0 home win later in the spring. Before that, Pardubice also won 2-0 in this fixture at CFIG Arena, which suggests the home setting has mattered a great deal in this matchup. That is a relevant point when sides are still settling into a new campaign and margins are usually thin.
Neither team comes in with a particularly polished run of form, so the match may turn on small details: set pieces, early pressure, or one defensive lapse. Jablonec’s recent away visits to Pardubice have not been straightforward, and that gives the hosts a reasonable platform even if the overall balance between the teams remains tight.
The forecast leans toward a modest-scoring game, with no clear sign of a runaway result. That fits the historical pattern between these clubs, where the stronger momentum often swings with the venue rather than with any huge quality gap. Pardubice are not being backed as a certainty, but the combination of home advantage and recent success in this fixture makes them the side to side with in a contest that could easily be decided by a single goal.
ScoreCast Pick
Pardubice win • Odds 2.45 • Confidence 5/10
Odds are valid as of July 31, 2026, 09:46 CET.