Palmeiras
vs
Cerro Porteno
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Palmeiras are the model's most likely winner at 70.5%, with a clearer model edge and slightly favors at least one clean sheet.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4% | 4.5% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 14.9% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 2 | 14.9% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 3 | 9.9% | 5.9% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 5.0% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
Palmeiras win and BTTS No
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 47.5%
- Model fair odds
- 2.11
- Available odds
- 1.80
- Expected value
- -14.6%
Odds are valid as of August 10, 2026, 08:07 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Form (Last 5)
- Home: W D W L W
- Away: W D W W W
H2H (Last 5)
- 2026-05-21 · Palmeiras · 0-1 · Cerro Porteno
- 2026-04-30 · Cerro Porteno · 1-1 · Palmeiras
- 2025-05-08 · Cerro Porteno · 0-2 · Palmeiras
- 2025-04-10 · Palmeiras · 1-0 · Cerro Porteno
- 2023-05-24 · Cerro Porteno · 0-3 · Palmeiras
Match Preview
Palmeiras enter this Round of 16 clash with the advantage of pedigree, home support and a track record of handling high-pressure Libertadores nights. Cerro Porteno are in useful form themselves, but the matchup still asks more questions of the visitors. In knockout football, that matters: one good away spell can keep a tie alive, but the heavier weight of quality usually tells over 90 minutes.
The head-to-head history is also informative. Palmeiras have already beaten Cerro Porteno several times in recent years, including a 3-0 away win in 2023 and a 2-0 away win in 2025, even though Cerro did nick a 1-0 home result in May. That mix suggests Cerro can make life awkward, but Palmeiras have generally had the stronger answers when these sides meet in this competition.
Form is not one-sided either way, with Palmeiras posting 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss and Cerro Porteno arriving with 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss. Still, Palmeiras at home usually bring a different level of control, especially in a tie where they do not need to overextend early. The model leans toward a home win with Cerro less likely to contribute on the scoresheet, which fits the broader pattern of the matchup.
The only slight wrinkle is that the locked pick is a little sharper than the plain home-win outlook. Palmeiras are well placed to win, but needing BTTS No means expecting them to limit Cerro as well as finish the job themselves. That is a credible angle given the recent meetings and the knockout setting.
ScoreCast Pick
Palmeiras win and BTTS No • Odds 1.80 • Confidence 7/10
Odds are valid as of August 10, 2026, 08:07 CET.