Çorum FK
vs
Alanyaspor
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Çorum FK are the model's most likely winner at 45.0%, with a clearer model edge, with the BTTS outlook finely balanced.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6% | 9.1% | 4.8% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 12.1% | 12.7% | 6.7% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 8.5% | 8.9% | 4.7% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 3.9% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
Draw and BTTS Yes
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 18.2%
- Model fair odds
- 5.50
- Available odds
- 4.50
- Expected value
- -18.2%
Odds are valid as of September 17, 2026, 15:57 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- Alanyaspor: Maestro (Inactive), Maestro (Inactive)
Form (Last 5)
- Home: D L L W W
- Away: D W L W D
H2H (Last 5)
- 2025-12-04 · Çorum FK · 0-5 · Alanyaspor
Match Preview
Çorum FK and Alanyaspor meet in a Süper Lig fixture that has the feel of a lively, open contest. The league table shows both sides are in the pack early on, with Alanyaspor slightly better placed on eight points and Çorum FK close behind on seven. That small gap does not decide the game on its own, but it hints that the visitors have been a touch more stable.
Recent form is also helpful here. Çorum FK have managed two wins, one draw and two losses, while Alanyaspor come in with two wins, two draws and one defeat. That extra layer of consistency, especially the ability to avoid losses, gives the visitors a stronger platform. Çorum can score-indeed, they have done so at a healthy rate-but they have also allowed too many chances the other way, which is rarely ideal when facing a team with more structure.
The head-to-head evidence is stark. The teams met in the Türkiye Kupası final in 2025, and Alanyaspor were emphatic 5-0 winners. That is not a result to overstate in isolation, but it does reinforce the idea that this matchup has already tilted heavily in the visitors’ favour. Çorum will be determined to respond at home, yet they still have to prove they can slow Alanyaspor down.
Injuries slightly complicate the picture, with Alanyaspor missing Maestro. Even so, the visitors look the more settled side and have enough going forward to stay dangerous. The model’s numbers point to a match where goals are quite possible and where Alanyaspor are marginally more likely to come out on top. The locked angle asks for a result rather than a simple double chance, but that is still the logical reading of a matchup that has tended to favour the away side.
Çorum can make this competitive, and both teams should have moments, but Alanyaspor’s steadier form and clearer head-to-head edge make the away side the better pick. ScoreCast Pick: Draw and BTTS Yes.
ScoreCast Pick
Draw and BTTS Yes • Odds 4.50 • Confidence 6/10
Odds are valid as of September 17, 2026, 15:57 CET.