Nice
vs
Lille
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Lille are the model's most likely winner at 46.4%, with a clearer model edge, with the BTTS outlook finely balanced.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4% | 11.1% | 8.4% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 8.2% | 12.3% | 9.2% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| 2 | 4.5% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 1.6% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
Lille win
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 46.4%
- Model fair odds
- 2.15
- Available odds
- 2.05
- Expected value
- -4.8%
Odds are valid as of September 18, 2026, 12:23 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- Nice: L. Abergel (Knee Injury), M. Bombito (Leg Injury), A. Mendy (Knee Injury), M. Sanson (Surgery), L. Abergel (Knee Injury), M. Bombito (Leg Injury), A. Mendy (Knee Injury), M. Sanson (Surgery)
- Lille: H. Igamane (Knee Injury), H. Igamane (Knee Injury)
Form (Last 5)
- Home: D L D L
- Away: W D W W
H2H (Last 5)
- 2026-04-18 · Lille · 0-0 · Nice
- 2025-10-29 · Nice · 2-0 · Lille
- 2025-01-17 · Lille · 2-1 · Nice
- 2024-11-10 · Nice · 2-2 · Lille
- 2024-05-19 · Lille · 2-2 · Nice
Match Preview
Nice host Lille in one of the more compelling Ligue 1 fixtures of the round, but the current balance of evidence points toward the visitors. Nice have gone through a frustrating spell, with 2 draws and 2 losses in their recent league form, and that lack of a decisive result is mirrored in their attacking output. They have struggled to turn tight games into wins, and with a number of injuries weakening the squad, it is hard to imagine them suddenly finding the extra gear needed against a top-end opponent.
Lille arrive in much better rhythm, with 3 wins and 1 draw from their recent league run. That is the sort of form that travels well, especially when paired with a more efficient attack and a defence that has been far more secure than Nice’s. The standings also back that up: Lille sit near the top of the table, while Nice are lagging behind and have not yet found the consistency needed to challenge the division’s better sides.
The head-to-head record is mixed, which is exactly what you would expect from two sides with enough quality to trade results. Nice have won this fixture before, but Lille have also taken points at this ground and were comfortable in their latest meeting in Lille. What matters more here is the present shape of the teams. Lille are creating and finishing more cleanly, and Nice’s recent home struggles make them vulnerable if the game becomes open.
The model leans to Lille as the most likely winner, though it also suggests a fairly lively contest rather than a routine away stroll. That fits the matchup well: Lille are the steadier side, but Nice have enough to make this competitive. Even so, the stronger call remains with the visitors, and the locked ScoreCast Pick is Lille win.
ScoreCast Pick
Lille win • Odds 2.05 • Confidence 8/10
Odds are valid as of September 18, 2026, 12:23 CET.