Newcastle
vs
Hull City
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Newcastle are the model's most likely winner at 58.3%, with a clearer model edge and slightly favors both teams to score.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 9.7% | 10.2% | 5.4% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 9.5% | 9.9% | 5.2% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 6.2% | 6.5% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 3.0% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
Newcastle -1
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
This market is outside the current Value Engine coverage. The selection reflects the broader match analysis rather than a validated pricing edge.
Why?
This market is not supported by the current Value Engine.
Odds are valid as of September 17, 2026, 11:45 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- Newcastle: D. Burn (Ankle Injury), A. Elanga (Knee Injury), Joelinton (Thigh Injury), W. Osula (Injury), E. Jaouen (Ankle Injury), Nico (Injury)
- Hull City: I. Ansah (Back Injury), J. Butland (Arm Injury), D. Gyabi (Groin Injury), C. Hughes (Groin Injury), E. Matazo (Knee Injury), H. Morita (Calf Injury)
Form (Last 5)
- Home: D W D L
- Away: W W D D
H2H (Last 5)
- 2024-07-27 · Hull City · 0-2 · Newcastle
- 2016-11-29 · Hull City · 1-1 · Newcastle
- 2015-01-31 · Hull City · 0-3 · Newcastle
- 2014-09-20 · Newcastle · 2-2 · Hull City
- 2014-03-01 · Hull City · 1-4 · Newcastle
Match Preview
Newcastle return home in a position of clear advantage against a Hull City side that have made a solid start but still face a major step up in class. Newcastle’s record so far has been mixed rather than dominant, yet their home setting and squad quality make them the stronger side in this matchup.
Hull have been resilient enough to pick up points, but the gulf in individual quality remains significant. Newcastle are expected to dictate more of the ball and create the better chances, particularly with their ability to push the tempo and attack from wide areas. Hull’s defensive organisation will be tested over long periods, and that can be hard to sustain at St James’ Park.
The injury list is a concern for the hosts, with D. Burn, A. Elanga, Joelinton and W. Osula all out, plus a couple of doubts. Even so, Newcastle’s overall level remains superior to Hull’s. Hull also have absences of their own, including I. Ansah and J. Butland, which further reduces their margin for error.
The head-to-head record strongly favours Newcastle too. Recent meetings, including a 2-0 friendly win, have gone their way, and historically they have tended to manage Hull well. That matters in a contest where the favorite is being asked not just to win, but to do so by a clear margin.
The model’s forecast supports a home win and leans toward a match where Newcastle can produce enough chances to separate themselves. That fits the shape of the fixture: Hull may compete early, but Newcastle’s quality and pressure should eventually tell. The locked selection asks for a two-goal handicap, which is a stronger requirement than a simple home win, but it is consistent with the overall matchup.
ScoreCast Pick
Newcastle -1 • Odds 2.02 • Confidence 7/10
Odds are valid as of September 17, 2026, 11:45 CET.