NEC Nijmegen
vs
GO Ahead Eagles
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
NEC Nijmegen are the model's most likely winner at 49.4%, with a clearer model edge and slightly favors both teams to score.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 5.6% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 2 | 5.7% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 3.9% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 5 | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
GO Ahead Eagles or Draw
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 50.6%
- Model fair odds
- 1.98
- Available odds
- 1.91
- Expected value
- -3.3%
Odds are valid as of September 18, 2026, 12:23 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- NEC Nijmegen: D. Fonville (Ankle Injury), A. Kaplan (Knee Injury), E. Mor (Injury), C. Bischoff (Injury), D. Fonville (Ankle Injury), A. Kaplan (Knee Injury), E. Mor (Injury), C. Bischoff (Injury)
- GO Ahead Eagles: G. Nauber (Broken Leg), P. Saathof (Knee Injury), G. Nauber (Broken Leg), P. Saathof (Knee Injury)
Form (Last 5)
- Home: W W L D L
- Away: D W L D D
H2H (Last 5)
- 2026-05-17 · NEC Nijmegen · 2-1 · GO Ahead Eagles
- 2025-10-05 · GO Ahead Eagles · 1-1 · NEC Nijmegen
- 2025-03-09 · NEC Nijmegen · 2-3 · GO Ahead Eagles
- 2024-12-07 · GO Ahead Eagles · 5-0 · NEC Nijmegen
- 2024-05-23 · NEC Nijmegen · 1-2 · GO Ahead Eagles
Match Preview
NEC Nijmegen welcome GO Ahead Eagles in an Eredivisie meeting that already feels finely balanced on paper. NEC sit just below their visitors in the table, and that small gap is reflected in the broader picture: GO Ahead Eagles have collected slightly more points, while NEC carry the stronger home reputation and a recent head-to-head win at Goffertstadion.
Both sides arrive with enough inconsistencies to make this hard to frame as a clear home or away call. NEC’s recent run has been mixed, with 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses, but they have still shown they can score in bursts and compete with direct, attacking opponents. GO Ahead Eagles have been steadier overall, posting 2 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss, which points to a team that is difficult to beat even when not fully convincing. That resilience matters in a game like this.
The injury picture also nudges the contest toward caution. NEC are missing several players, including D. Fonville, A. Kaplan and E. Mor, with C. Bischoff also questionable, while GO Ahead Eagles travel without G. Nauber and P. Saathof. Those absences reduce certainty on both sides and make defensive control harder to trust. In a fixture where neither squad looks fully settled, the likelihood of shared territory rises.
The head-to-head record adds another layer. NEC won the last meeting in Nijmegen 2-1, but GO Ahead Eagles have also produced a heavy 5-0 home win and a 2-1 cup success in previous recent clashes, so there is no dominant pattern. The most useful model signal here is the narrow lean toward a home win, but the broader forecast still shows GO Ahead Eagles as live throughout the 90 minutes, which fits the idea of a close game that can swing either way.
With both teams capable of scoring and neither showing enough defensive reliability to make a clean outcome easy to back, the safer reading is that GO Ahead Eagles can avoid defeat in a match that should stay competitive from start to finish.
ScoreCast Pick
GO Ahead Eagles or Draw • Odds 1.91 • Confidence 6/10
Odds are valid as of September 18, 2026, 12:23 CET.