Monza
vs
Sassuolo
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Sassuolo are the model's most likely winner at 42.0%, although the forecast remains competitive and slightly favors both teams to score.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 7.9% | 11.9% | 8.9% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| 2 | 5.1% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 2.2% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
Sassuolo win
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 42.0%
- Model fair odds
- 2.38
- Available odds
- 2.30
- Expected value
- -3.5%
Odds are valid as of September 16, 2026, 11:37 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- Monza: P. Ciurria (Inactive), C. Ngonge (Lacking Match Fitness), M. Pessina (Knee Injury), I. Toure (Contusion), J. Ziolkowski (Foot Injury)
- Sassuolo: D. Boloca (Muscle Injury), F. Cande (Knee Injury), I. Kone (Broken Leg), Y. Paz (Knee Injury), E. Pieragnolo (Knee Injury), C. Volpato (Thigh Injury), S. Walukiewicz (Muscle Injury)
Form (Last 5)
- Home: L L D L
- Away: L W D W
H2H (Last 5)
- 2024-08-03 · Monza · 2-2 · Sassuolo
- 2024-01-28 · Monza · 1-0 · Sassuolo
- 2023-10-02 · Sassuolo · 0-1 · Monza
- 2023-05-19 · Sassuolo · 1-2 · Monza
- 2023-01-22 · Monza · 1-1 · Sassuolo
Match Preview
Monza head into this game with work to do. Their opening record of 1 draw and 3 losses shows a side that has struggled to find rhythm, while Sassuolo’s 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss points to a more stable and confident start. That difference in form is the main reason the away side deserve the stronger look.
The standings back it up. Sassuolo are already holding their own in the top half, whereas Monza remain in a more precarious position and need to stop the slide quickly. The home crowd can help, but it will not erase the fact that Sassuolo look the more functional unit at this stage.
Injuries are a real issue for both teams. Monza are without P. Ciurria, C. Ngonge, M. Pessina, I. Toure and J. Ziolkowski, which strips out depth and experience in key areas. Sassuolo are also missing D. Boloca, F. Cande and I. Kone, yet their overall shape still looks more convincing than Monza’s. When one side is trying to rebuild confidence and the other is already playing with more certainty, that can be decisive.
The head-to-head record does leave room for Monza to compete. These teams shared a 2-2 friendly and Monza have beaten Sassuolo in previous league meetings, so this is not a fixture that automatically settles itself. Even so, Sassuolo have looked the more trustworthy side recently, and that matters more than old results when judging a current league match.
The forecast points toward a fairly open game with goals in it, but Sassuolo remain the more likely winners. Monza can make it awkward, and the away side probably will not have things all their own way, yet the better form and overall balance still point in one direction. Sassuolo win.
ScoreCast Pick
Sassuolo win • Odds 2.30 • Confidence 7/10
Odds are valid as of September 16, 2026, 11:37 CET.