Los Angeles FC
vs
New York Red Bulls
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Los Angeles FC are the model's most likely winner at 68.1%, with a clearer model edge and slightly favors both teams to score.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 7.4% | 7.8% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 9.1% | 9.5% | 5.0% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 7.4% | 7.8% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 4.5% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 2.2% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
Los Angeles FC -1.25
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
This market is outside the current Value Engine coverage. The selection reflects the broader match analysis rather than a validated pricing edge.
Why?
This market is not supported by the current Value Engine.
Odds are valid as of September 8, 2026, 12:03 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- Los Angeles FC: T. Hasal (Arm Injury), Igor Jesus (Knee Injury), T. Tillman (Injury), R. Porteous (Leg Injury), T. Hasal (Arm Injury), Igor Jesus (Knee Injury), T. Tillman (Injury), R. Porteous (Leg Injury)
- New York Red Bulls: A. Marcucci (Knee Injury), R. Mosquera (Thigh Injury), A. Marcucci (Knee Injury), R. Mosquera (Thigh Injury)
Form (Last 5)
- Home: L L D D D
- Away: L L D L D
H2H (Last 5)
- 2024-04-21 · Los Angeles FC · 2-2 · New York Red Bulls
- 2022-06-26 · Los Angeles FC · 2-0 · New York Red Bulls
- 2019-08-12 · Los Angeles FC · 4-2 · New York Red Bulls
- 2018-08-05 · New York Red Bulls · 2-1 · Los Angeles FC
Match Preview
Los Angeles FC are the more complete side here and the home setting strengthens that edge. They are in the top three of the standings with 37 points from 24 matches, and even if their recent run has been mixed, the broader numbers still show a team with more attacking thrust and a better defensive ceiling than New York Red Bulls.
The Red Bulls have been difficult to trust for much of the campaign. Their 7 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses tell the story of a side that can nick results but too often leaves itself with too much to do. Away from home, that instability becomes more pronounced, and that is a major concern against a Los Angeles FC side that can punish any slow start.
Injuries also lean against the visitors. Los Angeles FC are missing a few names, including Igor Jesus and T. Tillman, while R. Porteous is questionable, but New York Red Bulls have their own absences and questions, notably A. Marcucci and the possible absence of R. Mosquera. In a fixture where LAFC should expect to control the ball and territorial pressure, the home squad looks better equipped to absorb those losses.
The head-to-head history is also worth noting. These meetings have produced some lively scorelines, including a 2-2 draw and a couple of multi-goal LAFC wins, which suggests this matchup can open up once the home side gets on top. New York have not consistently contained LAFC’s quality, and that is a recurring concern heading into this contest.
The model’s main read is a Los Angeles FC win, with a strong expectation that they score more than once. That sits well with the eye test: LAFC have enough quality to stretch this Red Bulls defense, and their home advantage should help them turn superiority into a comfortable result.
Los Angeles FC -1.25 is the locked ScoreCast Pick.
ScoreCast Pick
Los Angeles FC -1.25 • Odds 1.80 • Confidence 6/10
Odds are valid as of September 8, 2026, 12:03 CET.