Lokomotiv Sofia
vs
CSKA Sofia
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
CSKA Sofia are the model's most likely winner at 59.4%, with a clearer model edge and slightly favors both teams to score.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
| 1 | 5.0% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 6.6% | 3.3% | 1.3% |
| 2 | 2.6% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
CSKA Sofia -1
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
This market is outside the current Value Engine coverage. The selection reflects the broader match analysis rather than a validated pricing edge.
Why?
This market is not supported by the current Value Engine.
Odds are valid as of September 15, 2026, 14:44 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Form (Last 5)
- Home: L L D L D
- Away: W W W D W
H2H (Last 5)
- 2026-03-08 · CSKA Sofia · 2-0 · Lokomotiv Sofia
- 2025-12-13 · CSKA Sofia · 2-1 · Lokomotiv Sofia
- 2025-09-27 · Lokomotiv Sofia · 1-1 · CSKA Sofia
- 2025-04-02 · CSKA Sofia · 1-0 · Lokomotiv Sofia
- 2024-09-16 · Lokomotiv Sofia · 0-3 · CSKA Sofia
Match Preview
Lokomotiv Sofia come into this derby in poor shape, with their recent league run producing little more than stalemates and defeats. That kind of form leaves them vulnerable against a CSKA Sofia side that has been winning regularly, scoring freely and protecting leads with far more authority. The gap in confidence and rhythm between the teams is hard to ignore.
CSKA’s league position underlines the contrast. They sit near the top of the table and have built their strong start on a settled structure, good attacking output and a defence that has been difficult to breach. Lokomotiv, by comparison, have struggled to turn home matches into a base of resistance. Even at their own ground, they have not shown the consistency needed to live with one of the division’s sharper sides.
The head-to-head record also points in the same direction. CSKA have had the better of this fixture in recent meetings, including a 2-0 league win and another away victory at Lokomotiv’s stadium. Those results matter because they show a repeatable matchup pattern: CSKA can control this opponent, keep them at arm’s length and find enough quality to separate late or through sustained pressure.
There are no injury concerns listed to complicate the picture, so the debate is mostly about team strength and current momentum. CSKA’s attacking numbers are especially persuasive, and while Lokomotiv may scrap hard in a local rivalry, their recent defensive record suggests they are likely to spend long periods under pressure again. The model’s independent score outlook leans toward an away win, with 1-1 and 1-2 among the likeliest exact scores, which fits a game where CSKA are expected to do the heavier lifting.
Because the locked pick asks for a stronger result than a straight away win, the key question is whether CSKA can turn superiority into a two-goal margin. On recent evidence, they have the edge to do so.
ScoreCast Pick
CSKA Sofia -1 • Odds 1.90 • Confidence 8/10
Odds are valid as of September 15, 2026, 14:44 CET.