Lillestrom
vs
Valerenga
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Lillestrom are the model's most likely winner at 50.4%, with a clearer model edge and slightly favors both teams to score.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 6.8% | 9.6% | 6.7% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 6.7% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 4.3% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 5 | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
Lillestrom win
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 50.4%
- Model fair odds
- 1.98
- Available odds
- 1.83
- Expected value
- -7.8%
Odds are valid as of September 10, 2026, 21:46 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- Lillestrom: L. Alperud (Injury), R. Gabrielsen (Injury), C. Jebara (Injury), E. B. Garnas (Injury), K. Krygard (Injury), L. Alperud (Injury), R. Gabrielsen (Injury), C. Jebara (Injury), E. B. Garnas (Injury), K. Krygard (Injury)
- Valerenga: F. Ambina (Muscle Injury), M. Sjoeng (Knee Injury)
Form (Last 5)
- Home: L L D L W
- Away: L L D L D
H2H (Last 5)
- 2026-04-19 · Valerenga · 0-2 · Lillestrom
- 2023-10-22 · Lillestrom · 2-0 · Valerenga
- 2023-05-01 · Valerenga · 3-4 · Lillestrom
- 2022-09-04 · Valerenga · 3-1 · Lillestrom
- 2022-05-25 · Lillestrom · 2-0 · Valerenga
Match Preview
Lillestrom head into this derby-style league meeting with the stronger league position and the more convincing recent head-to-head record. They sit fifth in the table, two places above Valerenga, and their season has been more stable even if the form line has been mixed. Valerenga, meanwhile, have struggled to turn draws into momentum and arrive with more questions than answers on the road.
The direct meetings offer useful context. Lillestrom beat Valerenga 2-0 away earlier this season, and that result fits a broader pattern in which they have often been the sharper, more efficient side in this matchup. At home, they usually carry enough intensity to make life uncomfortable, especially against a Valerenga team that can be vulnerable when forced to defend for long periods. The visitors do have enough attacking threat to score, but their defensive numbers suggest they are rarely comfortable away from home.
Injury lists add another layer. Lillestrom are missing several players, including some options who could matter in key phases of the game, while Valerenga also have absences of their own. That softens the edge a little, but not enough to move the balance away from the hosts. What matters most is that Lillestrom still look the more settled side in terms of structure and game management.
The model sees this as a close contest, with the home side just ahead and BTTS also a live possibility, which matches the feel of the fixture. Lillestrom are not projected to dominate throughout, but they have the better chance to control the decisive moments, particularly if they can make home advantage count early.
Lillestrom win.
ScoreCast Pick
Lillestrom win • Odds 1.83 • Confidence 5/10
Odds are valid as of September 10, 2026, 21:46 CET.