Leon
vs
FC Juarez
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Leon are the model's most likely winner at 60.6%, with a clearer model edge, with the BTTS outlook finely balanced.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 10.0% | 10.0% | 5.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 10.0% | 10.0% | 5.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 6.6% | 6.6% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 3.3% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
Leon -1
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
This market is outside the current Value Engine coverage. The selection reflects the broader match analysis rather than a validated pricing edge.
Why?
This market is not supported by the current Value Engine.
Odds are valid as of September 26, 2026, 11:39 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Form (Last 5)
- Home: W D L W D
- Away: L L L L W
H2H (Last 5)
- 2026-04-19 · Leon · 3-1 · FC Juarez
- 2025-09-27 · FC Juarez · 2-0 · Leon
- 2025-01-25 · Leon · 1-0 · FC Juarez
- 2024-10-20 · FC Juarez · 2-3 · Leon
- 2024-04-27 · FC Juarez · 1-1 · Leon
Match Preview
León return to home soil for an Apertura fixture that appears well suited to them. Their recent form is respectable, with four wins, two draws and three losses, and that is a far healthier base than FC Juarez bring into the match. Juarez have struggled badly, with just one win in their last nine, and that kind of sequence usually leaves a team vulnerable once the game starts tilting against them.
The head-to-head record also sits clearly with León. They won 3-1 in the most recent meeting at this venue, and they have beaten Juarez in three of the last four clashes listed here. That is a meaningful pattern, especially because it shows León have been able to impose themselves both at home and away in this matchup. When a side already has the better current form, that kind of direct evidence only strengthens the case.
The league context adds another layer. León sit comfortably in the upper half of the table and have remained competitive in the opening stretch, while Juarez have lacked consistency and the kind of defensive resilience needed to survive away games against stronger opponents. The model forecast also leans toward a home win, with León projected to score around two goals and Juarez around one. That points to a game where the hosts should have enough quality to keep the initiative and create repeated chances.
The locked pick asks for León -1, which is a stronger stance than a simple home win, but it is easy to understand given the matchup. León have the form, the venue advantage and the recent superiority in this fixture to justify backing them to win by more than one.
ScoreCast Pick
Leon -1 • Odds 1.90 • Confidence 7/10
Odds are valid as of September 26, 2026, 11:39 CET.