Leeds
vs
Newcastle
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Leeds are the model's most likely winner at 42.0%, although the forecast remains competitive and slightly favors both teams to score.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 9.1% | 11.9% | 7.7% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 6.8% | 8.9% | 5.8% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 3.4% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
Newcastle win and BTTS No
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 16.2%
- Model fair odds
- 6.16
- Available odds
- 5.50
- Expected value
- -10.7%
Odds are valid as of September 12, 2026, 10:57 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- Leeds: M. Joseph (Knee Injury), J. Rodon (Muscle Injury), I. Gruev (Knee Injury), M. Joseph (Knee Injury), J. Rodon (Muscle Injury), I. Gruev (Knee Injury)
- Newcastle: D. Burn (Ankle Injury), E. Jaouen (Ankle Injury), Joelinton (Thigh Injury), W. Osula (Injury), A. Dedic (Hamstring Injury), D. Burn (Ankle Injury)
Form (Last 5)
- Home: W D D
- Away: D W D
H2H (Last 5)
- 2026-01-07 · Newcastle · 4-3 · Leeds
- 2025-08-30 · Leeds · 0-0 · Newcastle
- 2023-05-13 · Leeds · 2-2 · Newcastle
- 2022-12-31 · Newcastle · 0-0 · Leeds
- 2022-01-22 · Leeds · 0-1 · Newcastle
Match Preview
Leeds and Newcastle meet in a game that looks far more balanced than a quick glance at the table might suggest. Both sides have opened with one win and two draws, so neither arrives in bad shape, but the underlying differences come from personnel and matchup history. Newcastle have had the better of Leeds in recent encounters and should feel encouraged by that.
Leeds do have home advantage, and that matters in a fixture where their energy and pressing can unsettle visiting sides. Yet they are carrying a few notable absences, including injuries at both ends of the pitch, which can affect balance when they try to sustain intensity for 90 minutes. Newcastle’s own injury list is also significant, but their squad depth has usually allowed them to absorb such problems more effectively.
The recent head-to-heads are striking. Newcastle won a thriller 4-3 away in January, drew 0-0 at Leeds in the league the year before, and have otherwise been difficult for Leeds to break down when the stakes are high. That balance of control and counterpunching gives the visitors a clear route to success if they can blunt Leeds early and exploit transitions later.
The model forecast is fairly open on the outcome, but it does lean toward Newcastle avoiding defeat and the game producing goals on both sides. That is a fair reflection of how these teams have matched up lately: Leeds can compete, yet Newcastle have shown the better late-game edge and the stronger finishing touch in this pairing. The locked ScoreCast Pick is Newcastle win and BTTS No.
ScoreCast Pick
Newcastle win and BTTS No • Odds 5.50 • Confidence 6/10
Odds are valid as of September 12, 2026, 10:57 CET.