KFUM Oslo
vs
Aalesund
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
KFUM Oslo are the model's most likely winner at 42.5%, although the forecast remains competitive and slightly favors both teams to score.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 7.4% | 10.8% | 7.8% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 2 | 6.1% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 3.4% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 5 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
Aalesund win and BTTS Yes
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 19.1%
- Model fair odds
- 5.23
- Available odds
- 4.50
- Expected value
- -14.0%
Odds are valid as of September 10, 2026, 21:50 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- KFUM Oslo: A. Aleesami (Groin Injury), M. Eikrem (Injury), J. Flaten (Red Card), P. Meliga (Inactive), M. Grodem (Injury), R. Rasch (Injury), T. Soras (Injury)
- Aalesund: H. Hammer (Injury), A. Kjelsen (Thigh Injury), M. Kristensen (Injury), P. Ngongo (Surgery), J. Seehusen (Injury)
Form (Last 5)
- Home: W W D L L
- Away: L D D L W
H2H (Last 5)
- 2026-04-12 · Aalesund · 2-2 · KFUM Oslo
- 2021-10-29 · KFUM Oslo · 2-4 · Aalesund
- 2021-05-23 · Aalesund · 1-0 · KFUM Oslo
- 2019-09-18 · Aalesund · 2-1 · KFUM Oslo
- 2019-07-21 · KFUM Oslo · 2-4 · Aalesund
Match Preview
KFUM Oslo meet Aalesund in a fixture that sits well inside the season’s mid-table uncertainty. KFUM have 5 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses, while Aalesund’s record of 3 wins, 9 draws and 7 losses shows a team that has often stayed in games but too rarely finished them off. That contrast creates an interesting dynamic: one side has the stronger urge to play for control at home, while the other has repeatedly leaned on resilience and draws.
The head-to-head record suggests there should be action. The teams shared a 2-2 draw earlier this year, and older meetings have also produced goals for both sides. Aalesund won 4-2 in Oslo in 2021, while KFUM have also shown they can be competitive in this pairing. That history points away from a cagey, low-event matchup and toward one where both attacks can find openings.
Aalesund’s scoring trend is also useful. Their away numbers are not dominant, but they have enough attacking threat to trouble a KFUM defence that has been leaky at times. At the same time, KFUM’s home support and the pressure of familiar surroundings give them a platform to be more aggressive than they might be on the road. This is the kind of game where one early goal could open things up quickly.
The model forecast sees the match as close, with KFUM only narrowly ahead on home-win probability and BTTS more likely than not. That fits the story of two sides whose defensive profiles are not strong enough to inspire much confidence in a shutout. The selected outcome, however, is the stronger statement: it expects Aalesund to avoid defeat and the game to feature goals, which is a step beyond the base home edge.
That makes the final call more ambitious than the most obvious 1X2 angle, but not unreasonable given Aalesund’s capacity to compete and KFUM’s uneven season.
ScoreCast Pick
Aalesund win and BTTS Yes • Odds 4.50 • Confidence 5/10
Odds are valid as of September 10, 2026, 21:50 CET.