Kasımpaşa
vs
Konyaspor
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Kasımpaşa are the model's most likely winner at 41.3%, although the forecast remains competitive, with the BTTS outlook finely balanced.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2% | 9.4% | 5.4% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 11.1% | 12.7% | 7.3% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 7.5% | 8.6% | 4.9% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 3.4% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
Kasımpaşa win
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 41.3%
- Model fair odds
- 2.42
- Available odds
- 2.35
- Expected value
- -2.9%
Odds are valid as of September 16, 2026, 11:37 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- Kasımpaşa: K. Corekci (Achilles Tendon Injury), A. Baldursson (Injury), H. Hajradinovic (Inactive), M. Ouanes (Inactive), K. Corekci (Achilles Tendon Injury), A. Baldursson (Injury), H. Hajradinovic (Inactive), M. Ouanes (Inactive)
Form (Last 5)
- Home: D W D D W
- Away: L L L L W
H2H (Last 5)
- 2026-03-08 · Konyaspor · 1-1 · Kasımpaşa
- 2025-10-05 · Kasımpaşa · 1-1 · Konyaspor
- 2025-01-19 · Konyaspor · 3-3 · Kasımpaşa
- 2024-08-10 · Kasımpaşa · 2-3 · Konyaspor
- 2024-04-13 · Kasımpaşa · 0-2 · Konyaspor
Match Preview
Kasımpaşa arrive in better shape and that gives them a clear platform at home. Their record of 2 wins and 3 draws is much healthier than Konyaspor’s 1 win and 4 losses, and the difference shows not just in results but in the way the two sides are coping with the demands of the season.
The standings reinforce that impression. Kasımpaşa are already sitting comfortably above Konyaspor, and that is usually meaningful in a league where early rhythm matters. The hosts have looked more settled, more reliable and more capable of turning competitive matches into points, which is exactly the kind of profile you want behind a home pick.
Injuries do create some uncertainty. Kasımpaşa are missing K. Corekci, while A. Baldursson, H. Hajradinovic and M. Ouanes are among the doubts. Even so, Konyaspor’s situation looks no better, and their recent results suggest they are still vulnerable when asked to defend for long stretches. If Kasımpaşa can get into good attacking areas early, they should be able to ask repeated questions.
The head-to-head history adds a cautionary note because these teams have shared tight games, including a 1-1 draw in Konya earlier this year. That matters, but it does not outweigh the stronger current form of the home side. Konyaspor may remain competitive, yet they have not shown enough consistency to be trusted over 90 minutes away from home.
The model’s most likely scoreline is a narrow home win or a draw, which fits the sense of a match that is not likely to become a rout. Even so, Kasımpaşa are the team with the better recent rhythm, the clearer home edge and the more convincing all-round case. Kasımpaşa win.
ScoreCast Pick
Kasımpaşa win • Odds 2.35 • Confidence 7/10
Odds are valid as of September 16, 2026, 11:37 CET.