Israel
vs
Kosovo
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Kosovo are the model's most likely winner at 41.6%, although the forecast remains competitive, with the BTTS outlook finely balanced.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4% | 10.4% | 7.3% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 8.9% | 12.5% | 8.7% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 2 | 5.3% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
Kosovo win
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 41.6%
- Model fair odds
- 2.41
- Available odds
- 2.25
- Expected value
- -6.5%
Odds are valid as of September 29, 2026, 13:00 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Form (Last 5)
- Home: L L
- Away: W L
H2H (Last 5)
- 2023-11-12 · Kosovo · 1-0 · Israel
- 2023-03-25 · Israel · 1-1 · Kosovo
Match Preview
Israel come into this Nations League meeting on the back of two defeats, and that is a concern against a Kosovo side that has already shown more resilience in its recent results. In a group-stage setting, momentum often matters as much as reputation, and Kosovo look better placed to handle the opening phases.
The head-to-head record adds an interesting layer. Kosovo beat Israel 1-0 in their most recent meeting and also drew 1-1 in the earlier fixture. That is not overwhelming evidence, but it does show a matchup that has leaned toward Kosovo being hard to break down and capable of deciding games in a narrow band.
Israel’s issue is not simply results, but rhythm. Two straight losses suggest they are searching for fluency, and that matters when the opponent is comfortable sitting into a compact structure and waiting for chances. Kosovo’s recent split of one win and one loss is not spectacular, but it is healthier, and the projected goals model also gives them the slightly stronger attacking outlook.
This does not read like a free-scoring contest. The most likely scoreline cluster sits around 1-1 and 0-1, which reinforces the sense of a match decided by one moment. Israel will feel at home, but Kosovo appear more stable and a touch more reliable in the key moments. Game management, substitutions and set pieces may also influence how the contest develops after the opening exchanges. The opening goal could alter the tempo, available space and level of risk taken by both teams.
ScoreCast Pick
Kosovo win • Odds 2.25 • Confidence 6/10
Odds are valid as of September 29, 2026, 13:00 CET.