IF Elfsborg
vs
Vasteras SK FK
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
IF Elfsborg are the model's most likely winner at 52.6%, with a clearer model edge and slightly favors both teams to score.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 10.1% | 11.1% | 6.1% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 8.9% | 9.7% | 5.4% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 5.2% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 2.3% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
IF Elfsborg win
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 52.6%
- Model fair odds
- 1.90
- Available odds
- 1.83
- Expected value
- -3.8%
Odds are valid as of August 12, 2026, 08:08 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- IF Elfsborg: P. Frick (Broken ankle), P. Frick (Broken ankle)
- Vasteras SK FK: M. Diallo (Health problems), F. Nsabiyumva (Foot Injury), J. Ring (Muscle Injury), I. Lushaku (Injury), M. Diallo (Health problems), F. Nsabiyumva (Foot Injury), J. Ring (Muscle Injury), I. Lushaku (Injury)
Form (Last 5)
- Home: L L L W W
- Away: W D W L W
H2H (Last 5)
- 2026-04-11 · Vasteras SK FK · 2-2 · IF Elfsborg
- 2024-11-02 · IF Elfsborg · 1-0 · Vasteras SK FK
- 2024-04-07 · Vasteras SK FK · 0-1 · IF Elfsborg
Match Preview
IF Elfsborg host Vasteras SK FK in a mid-table Allsvenskan meeting that carries real significance for both clubs’ season ambitions. The standings show two teams separated by just a point, which should keep the game competitive, but Elfsborg still look the more reliable side overall, especially at home.
Elfsborg’s recent league form reads 6 wins, 6 draws, 4 losses, while Vasteras arrive on 7 wins, 4 draws, 5 losses. Those numbers suggest neither side is in disarray, but Elfsborg’s extra balance and home setting give them the sharper edge. Their head-to-head record also helps: Elfsborg won 1-0 at home last season, and the latest meeting ended 2-2 in Västerås, which shows the visitors can compete but not necessarily dominate.
Injuries matter here. Elfsborg are without P. Frick, while Vasteras are dealing with a longer list of absences, including M. Diallo, F. Nsabiyumva and J. Ring, plus the questionable status of I. Lushaku. That kind of squad disruption can be costly in a game where the margins are already slim, especially against a home side with better continuity.
The model sees a modest home advantage and projects a result that is tighter than a commanding favorite’s, but still leans toward Elfsborg managing the key moments. That fits the broader picture: Vasteras should compete, yet the combination of home advantage, cleaner squad availability and a slightly stronger recent profile points toward the hosts finding a way. Game management, substitutions and set pieces may also influence how the contest develops after the opening exchanges.
The locked ScoreCast Pick is IF Elfsborg win.
ScoreCast Pick
IF Elfsborg win • Odds 1.83 • Confidence 7/10
Odds are valid as of August 12, 2026, 08:08 CET.