IF Elfsborg
vs
Kalmar FF
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
IF Elfsborg are the model's most likely winner at 51.4%, with a clearer model edge, with the BTTS outlook finely balanced.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7% | 7.1% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 11.1% | 11.6% | 6.1% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 9.1% | 9.6% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 5.0% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
IF Elfsborg win
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 51.4%
- Model fair odds
- 1.95
- Available odds
- 1.83
- Expected value
- -6.0%
Odds are valid as of September 11, 2026, 10:55 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- IF Elfsborg: P. Frick (Broken ankle), L. Hagg (Inactive), M. Rohden (Inactive), S. Holmen (Inactive), P. Frick (Broken ankle), L. Hagg (Inactive), M. Rohden (Inactive), S. Holmen (Inactive)
- Kalmar FF: J. Kindberg (Inactive), K. Paananen (Inactive), C. Gustafsson (Injury), J. Kindberg (Inactive)
Form (Last 5)
- Home: W W D W L
- Away: L L D L L
H2H (Last 5)
- 2026-04-27 · Kalmar FF · 2-1 · IF Elfsborg
- 2024-09-29 · Kalmar FF · 1-3 · IF Elfsborg
- 2024-04-22 · IF Elfsborg · 1-2 · Kalmar FF
- 2023-09-17 · IF Elfsborg · 0-3 · Kalmar FF
- 2023-07-09 · Kalmar FF · 0-4 · IF Elfsborg
Match Preview
IF Elfsborg come into this Allsvenskan meeting in a healthier competitive position and with far more reliable results across the season. They sit sixth in the table with 31 points from 20 games, while Kalmar FF have struggled badly for consistency and are carrying a much weaker record, especially away from home. That contrast matters here: Elfsborg have already shown they can manage games at Borås Arena, whereas Kalmar’s road numbers suggest they often leave themselves too much to do.
Recent form also leans toward the home side. Elfsborg’s sequence reads as 8 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses, a respectable return that underlines their ability to avoid defeat even when not at their sharpest. Kalmar’s 5 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses paints a very different picture, particularly with their away output remaining modest and their defensive record vulnerable. The visitors have also had problems keeping opponents quiet, which is a concern against an Elfsborg side that has generally been more stable in the final third.
The head-to-head record adds further weight to the home case. Elfsborg have enjoyed clear success in this fixture in recent seasons, including convincing away victories, although Kalmar did win the most recent meeting in Kalmar. That result is a reminder that Elfsborg cannot treat this as routine, but the longer body of evidence still tilts their way. With a home advantage in place, they should have enough control to dictate territory and chance volume.
There are some absences to factor in, particularly for Elfsborg, who are without P. Frick, L. Hagg and M. Rohden, with S. Holmen also a doubt. Even so, Kalmar’s own injury list and weaker overall baseline reduce the chance of those setbacks flipping the matchup. The broader statistical picture points to Elfsborg creating the better chances and doing enough to turn pressure into points.
A straightforward home success is the clearest read, and the locked ScoreCast Pick is IF Elfsborg win.
ScoreCast Pick
IF Elfsborg win • Odds 1.83 • Confidence 8/10
Odds are valid as of September 11, 2026, 10:55 CET.