Iceland
vs
Bulgaria
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Iceland are the model's most likely winner at 64.4%, with a clearer model edge, with the BTTS outlook finely balanced.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4% | 5.1% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 12.5% | 10.0% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 2 | 12.2% | 9.7% | 3.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 3 | 7.9% | 6.3% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
Iceland -1.25
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
This market is outside the current Value Engine coverage. The selection reflects the broader match analysis rather than a validated pricing edge.
Why?
This market is not supported by the current Value Engine.
Odds are valid as of October 1, 2026, 13:17 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Form (Last 5)
- Home: D W
- Away: L D
Match Preview
Iceland come into this Nations League meeting with the cleaner recent platform, collecting a win and a draw from their last two outings, while Bulgaria arrive with only a draw and a loss. That small difference in momentum matters in a fixture where the home side already carries the clearer edge in structure and consistency.
At this stage of the competition, points are precious and Iceland look the more settled unit. Their recent results suggest they are managing games better, and at home that usually translates into stronger territorial control and a higher chance of turning pressure into goals. Bulgaria, by contrast, have been less convincing and may struggle if Iceland establish an early lead.
The broader numbers also point towards an Iceland victory. The most likely score profiles are narrow but positive for the hosts, with 1-0 and 2-0 both featuring prominently. That is important because it frames the match as one Iceland can win through control rather than chaos. Even so, Bulgaria’s away threat is not zero, so the safer read is a home side that can extend the margin if the contest opens up.
This is why the handicap angle feels more aggressive than the straight result, but not unrealistic. Iceland are the better side on current evidence, and if they play to their standard they should be able to separate themselves by more than a single goal. Bulgaria will need a disciplined defensive performance to keep it tight, and they have not shown enough lately to inspire that confidence.
ScoreCast Pick
Iceland -1.25 • Odds 1.90 • Confidence 6/10
Odds are valid as of October 1, 2026, 13:17 CET.