Hamburger SV
vs
1. FC Koln
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
1. FC Köln are the model's most likely winner at 40.3%, although the forecast remains competitive and slightly favors both teams to score.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 6.8% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 5.1% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 2.5% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
1. FC Koln win
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 40.3%
- Model fair odds
- 2.48
- Available odds
- 2.45
- Expected value
- -1.4%
Odds are valid as of September 17, 2026, 21:19 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- Hamburger SV: S. Bornauw (Muscle Injury), A. Rossing-Lelesiit (Ankle Injury), M. Vuskovic (Doping), S. Bornauw (Muscle Injury), A. Rossing-Lelesiit (Ankle Injury), M. Vuskovic (Doping)
- 1. FC Köln: T. Hubers (Knee Injury), T. Hubers (Knee Injury)
Form (Last 5)
- Home: L L L
- Away: W L D
H2H (Last 5)
- 2026-03-14 · Hamburger SV · 1-1 · 1. FC Köln
- 2025-11-02 · 1. FC Köln · 4-1 · Hamburger SV
- 2025-01-18 · Hamburger SV · 1-0 · 1. FC Köln
- 2024-08-02 · 1. FC Köln · 1-2 · Hamburger SV
- 2023-01-07 · 1. FC Köln · 4-0 · Hamburger SV
Match Preview
This is a difficult spot for Hamburger SV. Their recent league form has been poor, and the biggest issue is bluntness in attack: too often they are either chasing games or failing to create enough to recover once they fall behind. Against a 1. FC Köln side with more rhythm and better forward efficiency, that is a serious concern.
Köln’s recent results have not been flawless, but they have shown enough structure to suggest they can control large parts of this contest. The away side have been more reliable in possession and more dangerous in the final third, while Hamburg’s defensive numbers remain a problem. When a team is conceding chances and struggling to score, it becomes very hard to back them in a matchup where the opponent can punish transitions.
The head-to-head evidence is also useful here. Köln have had success in this fixture before, including a convincing league win in Cologne and a 1-1 draw in Hamburg, which shows they are comfortable competing on this ground. That balance matters because it keeps the game from looking like a simple home-response angle. Even so, the current form gap and Hamburg’s attacking drought point in the same direction.
There are injuries on both sides, but Hamburg’s list looks especially damaging given their current issues. Missing pieces in defence and wide areas are awkward enough; doing so while already struggling for goals makes the task tougher still. Köln are not perfect either, but they arrive with the more convincing blend of shape, output and game management.
The model sees the visitors as the likelier winners, although the contest is not projected as a blowout. The locked selection asks Köln to take the result, and that is a fair reflection of the stronger overall profile. 1. FC Köln win.
ScoreCast Pick
1. FC Koln win • Odds 2.45 • Confidence 7/10
Odds are valid as of September 17, 2026, 21:19 CET.