Ham-Kam
vs
Molde
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Molde are the model's most likely winner at 53.7%, with a clearer model edge and slightly favors both teams to score.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| 1 | 4.8% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 6.4% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
| 2 | 3.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| 3 | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
Molde -0.75
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
This market is outside the current Value Engine coverage. The selection reflects the broader match analysis rather than a validated pricing edge.
Why?
This market is not supported by the current Value Engine.
Odds are valid as of September 10, 2026, 21:50 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- Ham-Kam: A. Potur (Heel Injury), A. Potur (Heel Injury)
- Molde: S. Diop (Inactive), S. Hansen (Injury), E. Hestad (Injury), V. Hoff (Knee Injury), M. Kikkenborg (Achilles Tendon Injury), H. Stenevik (Injury), S. Diop (Inactive), S. Hansen (Injury), E. Hestad (Injury), V. Hoff (Knee Injury)
Form (Last 5)
- Home: W D L D L
- Away: D L W W W
H2H (Last 5)
- 2026-04-12 · Molde · 4-1 · Ham-Kam
- 2025-08-09 · Molde · 1-0 · Ham-Kam
- 2025-05-25 · Ham-Kam · 2-1 · Molde
- 2024-08-25 · Molde · 3-0 · Ham-Kam
- 2024-04-07 · Ham-Kam · 0-1 · Molde
Match Preview
Molde travel to Ham-Kam with the more convincing blend of quality, balance and attacking threat. They are fourth in the table and arrive with 10 wins from 19, while Ham-Kam’s more mixed record leaves them closer to the lower half of the standings than the European places. That gap matters, particularly when one side has been so much more dependable in the final third.
Molde’s away numbers are especially useful here. They have scored consistently and, despite a few setbacks, still look like a team capable of pushing opponents back for long stretches. Ham-Kam can be awkward at home and have drawn enough matches to frustrate stronger teams, but they also concede enough chances to make life difficult against a side with Molde’s movement and finishing. If Molde get on top of midfield transitions, they should create the cleaner chances.
The head-to-head record adds further encouragement for the visitors. Molde have won three of the last four league meetings, including a 4-1 away victory earlier this season and a 3-0 home win last year. That is a strong pattern and suggests Ham-Kam have often struggled to contain Molde’s front line once the game stretches.
There are injury issues on both sides, but Molde’s overall squad strength and season-long output still stand out. Ham-Kam’s form is respectable enough to warn against complacency, yet it has not been enough to make them a stable pick against top-half opponents. The model leans toward an away win, and its projected scoring also points to Molde doing the heavy lifting in what should be a relatively open contest.
The selection asks Molde to win by more than a single goal, so it is a stronger stance than the simple away result. Given the matchup and recent dominance, that is a fair way to frame their edge.
ScoreCast Pick
Molde -0.75 • Odds 1.90 • Confidence 7/10
Odds are valid as of September 10, 2026, 21:50 CET.