Groningen
vs
PEC Zwolle
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Groningen are the model's most likely winner at 56.9%, with a clearer model edge and slightly favors both teams to score.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 7.4% | 9.2% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 7.7% | 9.7% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 5.4% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 2.8% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 5 | 1.2% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
Groningen -0.75
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
This market is outside the current Value Engine coverage. The selection reflects the broader match analysis rather than a validated pricing edge.
Why?
This market is not supported by the current Value Engine.
Odds are valid as of September 16, 2026, 11:37 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- Groningen: N. Brandis (Inactive), T. Hernes (Injury), M. Jeng (Leg Injury), T. Mercera (Injury), R. Metu (Injury), N. Brandis (Inactive), T. Hernes (Injury), M. Jeng (Leg Injury)
- PEC Zwolle: S. Floranus (Injury), F. Krastev (Achilles Tendon Injury), Y. Namli (Knee Injury), R. Thomas (Injury)
Form (Last 5)
- Home: W L L D D
- Away: L W L D L
H2H (Last 5)
- 2026-03-13 · PEC Zwolle · 1-1 · Groningen
- 2025-11-23 · Groningen · 2-2 · PEC Zwolle
- 2025-05-18 · PEC Zwolle · 2-0 · Groningen
- 2024-12-08 · Groningen · 0-0 · PEC Zwolle
- 2023-08-05 · PEC Zwolle · 0-0 · Groningen
Match Preview
Groningen come into this fixture with the more dependable early-season profile. Their 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses is hardly flawless, but it is far more balanced than PEC Zwolle’s 1 win, 1 draw and 4 losses, which shows a team spending too much time trying to recover momentum.
The table reflects that difference. Groningen have given themselves a respectable base in mid-table, while PEC Zwolle are lower and still vulnerable to being dragged into a difficult run if their away form does not improve. Home advantage should matter here because Groningen have been the more settled of the two and the more likely side to impose a coherent game plan.
Both squads have absences, with Groningen missing several players and PEC Zwolle also weakened by injuries to S. Floranus, F. Krastev and Y. Namli. Those setbacks matter because they reduce Zwolle’s ability to stay compact and carry threat when they need an outlet. Groningen’s issues look manageable in comparison, especially with the game being played in front of their own crowd.
The head-to-head record has produced some tight scorelines, including a 1-1 draw in Zwolle and a 2-2 meeting in Groningen. That suggests PEC Zwolle can make life awkward, and it would be no surprise if the match stays competitive for long stretches. Still, Groningen have the better structure and a slightly stronger attacking platform at home.
The model’s score outlook is also consistent with a Groningen edge rather than a one-sided blowout. That fits the idea of a home side that should do enough to win, but may need to keep working for it. On balance, the hosts have the better combination of form, control and venue advantage. Groningen -0.75.
ScoreCast Pick
Groningen -0.75 • Odds 1.78 • Confidence 6/10
Odds are valid as of September 16, 2026, 11:37 CET.