GKS Katowice
vs
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
GKS Katowice are the model's most likely winner at 45.1%, with a clearer model edge, with the BTTS outlook finely balanced.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8% | 8.6% | 4.7% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 11.3% | 12.5% | 6.8% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 8.2% | 9.0% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 4.0% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 1.4% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
GKS Katowice win
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 45.1%
- Model fair odds
- 2.22
- Available odds
- 2.05
- Expected value
- -7.5%
Odds are valid as of August 10, 2026, 08:07 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Form (Last 5)
- Home: L W L
- Away: W D W
H2H (Last 5)
- 2026-08-06 · Hapoel Tel Aviv · 2-0 · GKS Katowice
Match Preview
GKS Katowice head into the second leg with home advantage and the narrowest of nods from the market, yet the balance of the tie still feels finely poised. Their recent form reads 1 win and 2 losses, which does not give off the same certainty as a side ready to take charge of a European qualifier. Hapoel Tel Aviv arrive in better shape with 2 wins and 1 draw, a run that suggests a more settled team at the moment.
The first leg offered another useful clue. Hapoel beat Katowice 2-0, and that result will naturally shape the mood around this return fixture. It was a controlled performance rather than a frantic one, and it gave the Israeli side a platform to approach the away leg with composure. Katowice now need to show more intensity in the final third if they are to turn the tie.
Tactically, this looks like a contest where margins may stay narrow for long periods. Katowice will lean on their home crowd and try to be more assertive, but Hapoel have already shown they can manage the matchup and punish mistakes. The model’s score outlook also points toward a low-scoring, closely fought game, with 1-1 and 1-0 among the most plausible results.
That makes the straight home call feel more like a judgement on venue and urgency than on current momentum alone. Katowice can certainly make this awkward, but Hapoel’s recent consistency and their clean first-leg win mean the visitors are well equipped to survive pressure.
ScoreCast Pick
GKS Katowice win • Odds 2.05 • Confidence 6/10
Odds are valid as of August 10, 2026, 08:07 CET.