FYR Macedonia
vs
Scotland
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
FYR Macedonia are the model's most likely winner at 37.9%, although the forecast remains competitive and slightly favors both teams to score.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 7.5% | 11.2% | 8.4% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| 2 | 5.6% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 2.8% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
Draw
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 24.3%
- Model fair odds
- 4.12
- Available odds
- 3.00
- Expected value
- -27.1%
Odds are valid as of October 1, 2026, 13:17 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Form (Last 5)
- Home: L L
- Away: D L
Match Preview
FYR Macedonia and Scotland meet in a League B contest that already looks finely balanced. The form lines are not inspiring on either side: Macedonia have lost their last two, while Scotland have collected just a draw and a loss. That points to two teams searching for stability more than one clearly pulling away.
The most likely outcome is a home win on the model, but the margins are tight enough that the draw remains the more natural editorial read. Scotland’s recent struggles have been real, yet Macedonia have not been sharp enough to turn home advantage into a strong betting case on the straight result. In a match where both sides need a response, caution can easily outweigh ambition.
The statistical picture also supports a close game. The forecasted score lines cluster around 1-1, 1-2 and 2-1, which tells you this is not expected to be a one-sided contest. Scotland have the capacity to make life awkward, but they have not been reliable enough to back with confidence to go and win it outright. Macedonia, meanwhile, have not shown the kind of attacking rhythm that would make them a clear home favourite.
That leaves the draw as the most sensible locked call. It reflects the competitive shape of the fixture without overstating either team’s current level. If one side does edge it, it may be by a single goal, but the overall feel is of two teams cancelling each other out more often than not.
ScoreCast Pick
Draw • Odds 3.00 • Confidence 5/10
Odds are valid as of October 1, 2026, 13:17 CET.