Fulham
vs
Manchester United
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Manchester United are the model's most likely winner at 46.9%, with a clearer model edge and slightly favors both teams to score.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 6.1% | 10.6% | 9.3% | 5.4% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 4.1% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 1.8% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
Fulham or Draw
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 53.1%
- Model fair odds
- 1.88
- Available odds
- 1.80
- Expected value
- -4.5%
Odds are valid as of September 18, 2026, 12:22 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- Fulham: T. Cairney (Knee Injury), R. Sessegnon (Groin Injury), T. Cairney (Knee Injury), R. Sessegnon (Groin Injury)
- Manchester United: C. Baleba (Ankle Injury), A. Diallo (Injury), T. Heaton (Injury), M. Ugarte (Knee Injury), M. de Ligt (Back Injury), C. Baleba (Ankle Injury), A. Diallo (Injury), T. Heaton (Injury)
Form (Last 5)
- Home: L L L D
- Away: L W D L
H2H (Last 5)
- 2026-02-01 · Manchester United · 3-2 · Fulham
- 2025-08-24 · Fulham · 1-1 · Manchester United
- 2025-03-02 · Manchester United · 1-1 · Fulham
- 2025-01-26 · Fulham · 0-1 · Manchester United
- 2024-08-16 · Manchester United · 1-0 · Fulham
Match Preview
Fulham and Manchester United meet at a time when neither side has built much stability, which is exactly why this fixture feels less straightforward than the names suggest. Fulham have managed only one draw and three defeats, while United’s record of one win, one draw and two losses still leaves them short of conviction. Both teams have already shown enough weaknesses to make this a contest where control may not last long.
Fulham’s home form is not convincing, and the recent injury absences to Tom Cairney and Ryan Sessegnon remove some creativity and thrust from the side. United are also dealing with their own issues, with C. Baleba, Amad Diallo, Tom Heaton, Manuel Ugarte and Matthijs de Ligt all unavailable. That is a significant list for a team still trying to settle its shape and find dependable performances away from home.
The recent head-to-head meetings point to a competitive matchup rather than a one-sided one. United won 3-2 at Old Trafford in February, but the previous league meeting at Craven Cottage finished 1-1, and Fulham have shown they can frustrate this opponent when the game becomes scrappy and open. That matters here, because the overall profile suggests both defences can be exposed.
The model leans toward Manchester United by a narrow margin, and the most likely score sits around 1-1, with 1-2 and 0-1 close behind. That fits the feeling that this could be decided by a moment rather than a sustained surge. The locked pick, however, goes against the pure away-win read and asks Fulham to avoid defeat. It is a more cautious position than the nominal favourite outcome, but given the uneven form on both sides and Fulham’s ability to keep United honest in this venue, it is not a big stretch.
ScoreCast Pick
Fulham or Draw • Odds 1.80 • Confidence 6/10
Odds are valid as of September 18, 2026, 12:22 CET.