Flamengo
vs
Mirassol
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Flamengo are the model's most likely winner at 71.4%, with a clearer model edge, with the BTTS outlook finely balanced.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 11.2% | 8.4% | 3.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 2 | 12.6% | 9.5% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 3 | 9.5% | 7.1% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 5.3% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
Flamengo -1.5
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 47.7%
- Model fair odds
- 2.10
- Available odds
- 1.78
- Expected value
- -15.1%
Odds are valid as of August 31, 2026, 13:16 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- Flamengo: Alex Sandro (Calf Injury), Vitao (Muscle Injury), N. de la Cruz (Muscle Injury), Alex Sandro (Calf Injury), Vitao (Muscle Injury), N. de la Cruz (Muscle Injury)
- Mirassol: Edson Carioca (Injury), Jose Aldo (Muscle Injury), Negueba (Knee Injury), Neto Moura (Yellow Cards), Neto Moura (Injury), Edson Carioca (Injury)
Form (Last 5)
- Home: D W W L W
- Away: W L L D D
H2H (Last 5)
- 2026-08-16 · Mirassol · 1-5 · Flamengo
- 2025-12-06 · Mirassol · 3-3 · Flamengo
- 2025-08-09 · Flamengo · 2-1 · Mirassol
Match Preview
Flamengo return to league action in strong position and with the clearer overall pedigree. Sitting near the top of the table and armed with a far stronger recent record than Mirassol, they have the kind of momentum that usually translates well at home. Their form line of 14 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses is a proper marker of consistency, while Mirassol’s 6 wins, 7 draws and 11 losses suggests a side that has struggled to turn competitive performances into results.
The head-to-head history also points toward Flamengo having a decisive edge. They won this season’s reverse meeting 5-1 away from home, and they also beat Mirassol 2-1 last year in Rio. That is useful evidence that Flamengo can not only win this fixture, but do so with authority when they find rhythm early. Mirassol’s best chance is probably to stay compact and keep the game close, yet the gap in attacking quality feels significant.
There are absences to weigh up. Flamengo are without Alex Sandro, Vitão and Nicolás De La Cruz, which slightly trims their depth, especially in defensive and midfield areas. Even so, the home side still look well equipped to impose themselves. Mirassol arrive with several unavailable players of their own, including Edson Carioca, José Aldo and Negueba, plus Neto Moura listed as doubtful, which weakens their options further and may make sustained resistance harder over 90 minutes.
The model leans toward Flamengo winning, and the projected score profile is centred around a 2-0 or 3-0 type result. That fits the eye test: Flamengo should create enough chances to separate themselves, while Mirassol may find it difficult to keep pace if the hosts score first. The one caution is that the stronger-looking angle is not the plain home win, but a margin-based approach that asks Flamengo to turn superiority into a clear scoreline.
ScoreCast Pick
Flamengo -1.5 • Odds 1.78 • Confidence 8/10
Odds are valid as of August 31, 2026, 13:16 CET.