Fiorentina
vs
Napoli
Model Forecast
Test version: this model is still being evaluated and is not trusted as a ScoreCast Pick or confidence signal.
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Napoli are the model's most likely winner at 44.1%, although the forecast remains competitive, with the BTTS outlook finely balanced.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 8.1% | 12.1% | 9.1% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| 2 | 4.8% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Experimental probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds or a betting recommendation.
Napoli win
Shown for testing only. This model assessment is not trusted as a selection or confidence signal.
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 44.1%
- Model fair odds
- 2.27
- Available odds
- 2.20
- Expected value
- -2.9%
Odds are valid as of September 18, 2026, 12:22 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- Fiorentina: F. Parisi (Knee Injury), R. Sottil (Back Injury), F. Parisi (Knee Injury), R. Sottil (Back Injury)
- Napoli: Alisson Santos (Muscle Injury), A. Buongiorno (Knee Injury), Giovane (Groin Injury), L. Marianucci (Knee Injury), S. McTominay (Heart Problems), A. Meret (Muscle Injury), F. Anguissa (Muscle Injury), Alisson Santos (Muscle Injury)
Form (Last 5)
- Home: L L L W
- Away: W L L W
H2H (Last 5)
- 2026-01-31 · Napoli · 2-1 · Fiorentina
- 2025-09-13 · Fiorentina · 1-3 · Napoli
- 2025-03-09 · Napoli · 2-1 · Fiorentina
- 2025-01-04 · Fiorentina · 0-3 · Napoli
- 2024-05-17 · Fiorentina · 2-2 · Napoli
Match Preview
Fiorentina versus Napoli feels like one of the more balanced Serie A fixtures on the card, even if the table and recent trends give the visitors the sharper edge. Fiorentina’s opening has been patchy, with one win and three losses, and that inconsistency has shown up in both their scoring rhythm and their defensive exposure. Napoli have also been mixed with two wins and two defeats, but their attacking numbers remain the more convincing of the two and they have usually looked the more dangerous side in this matchup.
Injury concerns affect both camps. Fiorentina are missing Fabiano Parisi, with Riccardo Sottil also a doubt, while Napoli are without a longer list that includes Alessandro Buongiorno, Meret, McTominay, and several others. That is enough to temper any idea of a cleanly settled match, because Napoli’s depth will be tested and Fiorentina may see room to compete if they can make the game physical and compact.
The recent head-to-head record still leans Napoli. They beat Fiorentina 2-1 in Naples in January, won 3-1 in Florence earlier in the season, and also claimed a 2-0 away league win and a 3-0 away cup win in the two previous meetings. That is a strong body of evidence, and it explains why the visitors are viewed as the more likely winners even on the road.
The model agrees that Napoli have the better chance of taking the points, although the projected scores are not especially emphatic and 1-1 remains a live possibility. That is important context because the locked selection goes beyond the plain away win and asks Napoli to win outright rather than simply avoid defeat. It is a stronger call than the underlying balance of probabilities suggests, but it still fits the broader picture of Napoli’s superior attacking edge and their history of handling Fiorentina in recent meetings.
ScoreCast Pick
Napoli win • Odds 2.20 • Confidence 7/10
Odds are valid as of September 18, 2026, 12:22 CET.